Viewpoints Don’t Fight the Fed, But Don’t Lose the Thread The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to pause rate hikes in 2023. At least three factors will drive the decision on when and at what rate to pause.
This is my first installment of a series of essays exploring global economic and financial themes. While many of these essays (including today’s) will focus on the U.S. Federal Reserve as one of the world’s major monetary policymakers, in future essays I will also offer my perspectives on the global economy and financial markets more broadly. My aim is to help readers extract signal from noise and spot emerging trends hidden in the gusher of economic and financial data that flood our inboxes and fill our screens every day. We’re concluding a turbulent year in U.S. and global financial markets – and a deeply painful one for most investors. Major drivers of the tumult were the decisions by the Fed and other major central banks to undertake abrupt and correlated (if not coordinated) hawkish monetary policy pivots to try to get ahead of an inflation curve that has turned out to be hockey-stick steep, distressingly persistent, and broadly evident in both price and wage data (see Figure 1). To Read the Full Article Log In Or Register
Blog April Inflation Report Unlikely to Alter Fed’s Path April’s U.S. inflation report likely offers some comfort to Federal Reserve officials, but rate cuts are unlikely until we see a more substantial deceleration in inflation.
Strategy Spotlight Income Fund Update: Capitalizing on the Global Opportunities in Fixed Income With the potential for higher-for-longer yields across countries, we see the global fixed income opportunity set as the most attractive in years.
Viewpoints Navigating the Challenges: EU Securitisation Regulation and Its Effects on Investors and Markets Regulation has transformed the EU securitisation market, but there are further improvements that can be made.
Asset Allocation Outlook When Markets Diverge, Opportunities Emerge Shifting dynamics among global economies and markets present a range of opportunities for multi-asset portfolios.
Economic and Market Commentary The Cost of Cash: A $6 Trillion Question In this PIMCO Perspectives, we examine how the return of elevated bond yields comes at an opportune time to consider shifting out of cash.
Blog The Fed: Stuck On Hold for Now Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.
Viewpoints Will the True Treasury Term Premium Please Stand Up? Various methods to estimate this key bond market gauge differ on details but appear to signal rising investor compensation.
Blog April Inflation Report Unlikely to Alter Fed’s Path April’s U.S. inflation report likely offers some comfort to Federal Reserve officials, but rate cuts are unlikely until we see a more substantial deceleration in inflation.
Blog The Fed: Stuck On Hold for Now Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.
Viewpoints Will the True Treasury Term Premium Please Stand Up? Various methods to estimate this key bond market gauge differ on details but appear to signal rising investor compensation.