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Stacy Schaus, Ying Gao
The first in a series of articles exploring diversifying asset strategies, including fixed income, real assets, equities and capital preservation.
We’re often asked how many bond offerings should be on a defined contribution plan’s investment menu. The answer: It depends.
Defined contribution (DC) plan sponsors face a dual challenge: They must offer investment options consistent with the goals and demographics of plan
members. They also must consider how the menu’s structure affects the way individuals select investments. Bond offerings must be evaluated individually
and holistically to help participants build a well-structured portfolio that fully leverages fixed income’s potential to preserve principal, generate
income and boost diversification.
What’s on the investment menu now?
This is a critical first question in designing core bond offerings. Plenty of research finds too many undiversified choices can drive suboptimal
investment decisions or inaction.
Unfortunately, many lineups are bloated, particularly with equity choices. These lineups often are based on equity style boxes and may include
strategies with value, growth and blended styles in small, medium and large market capitalization categories. All too often a menu with seven of 10
investment choices in the equity category provides “unintended advice” that may lead some participants to allocate 70% of their savings to equity offerings. This phenomenon is known as the “1/n heuristic” or “naïve diversification.” It may lead participants
to select portfolios that are inappropriate for their time horizon and risk capacity.Some plans take the opposite tack, ultrasimplifying menus to less than a handful of “risk pillars,” including cash, bonds, equities and possibly real
What’s important in structuring a DC menu, whether lengthy or brief, is to offer a risk-balanced investment set. In the event that participants evenly
divide their assets across the investment menu (i.e., 1/n), the result should provide a reasonably balanced portfolio. Many DC plans offer
just one U.S.-centric bond choice. We suggest that plan sponsors consider adding more bond choices to balance their lineup (see Figure 1).
For menus that include a money market fund, we suggest fiduciaries consider adding a short-term or low-duration bond strategy, either as a replacement or complement. We believe it important for these replacements to have return potential, low volatility and small risk of negative single-day performance.
Core bondsMany DC plans offer only a single bond strategy that is passively managed or tightly tethered to the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index (BAGG). At PIMCO, we believe that passive BAGG-oriented allocations are no longer efficient in tapping the true value of
bonds. Historically, the BAGG offered broad diversification among U.S. bond market sectors and typically had low volatility and low correlation to equities. But the growth of government
debt has eroded these advantages: The BAGG and strategies benchmarked against it may fall short in the critical areas of return enhancement and risk-mitigation potential.
Consider the BAGG’s concentration risk. Because it is a market- capitalization-weighted index made up of U.S. investment grade bonds, the share of U.S.
Treasuries in the index rose to a 10-year high of 36% at the end of 2013; this reflected the U.S. government’s continued debt issuance to finance its budget deficit. Moreover, yields on
the index remain near historical lows because more than 70% of the index is composed of low-yielding government and mortgage-backed securities, according to Barclays. In short,
overconcentration, coupled with low interest rates for a large portion of the index, suggests limited scope for capital appreciation and may increase
the risk of losses when rates rise.
A better alternative, we believe, would be bond strategies that can actively manage risks, invest globally and enhance yield potential relative to the
index. Active management offers several potential benefits critical to DC participants: Duration flexibility may reduce downside risk in a rising rate
environment; broader investment guidelines may expand the opportunity set and increase return potential; and sector selection may improve
diversification and reduce concentration risk in government-backed securities.
Without doubt, passive bond management typically offers lower expense ratios than active strategies. Nonetheless, reduced returns and exposure to rising rates may hit participants with significantly higher “hidden costs.” In contrast, active core bond managers have shown the ability to manage risk and increase alpha relative to the BAGG over time and during most market downturns. Passive intermediate-term bond strategies underperformed more than 75% of active core and core plus strategies over the past five and 10 years (see Figure 2).
Selecting diversifying bond strategiesFigure 3 shows a list of potential diversifying fixed income strategies that DC plan sponsors could consider adding to their lineup.
Might bond strategies provide access to securities with higher return and yield potential than passive BAGG-bounded strategies?
To answer these questions, we suggest evaluating the return potential of current plan offerings. Although yield-to-maturity (YTM) is an incomplete
measure of the return potential of bond strategies, it may be used as a good first step to compare the BAGG with diversifying bond strategies — it explains 85-90% of returns over reasonably long horizons. As of 31 December 2013, the BAGG’s YTM was 2.4%. This compared poorly with an equally weighted index blend of the Barclays Global Credit Index, the BofA Merrill Lynch Global High Yield BB-B Rated Constrained Index and the JPMorgan EMBI Global Index (YTM of 4.8%). See Figure
Volatility and correlations:
Is your offering appropriate from a volatility perspective? Does it offer diversification via lower correlations relative to other choices?
Managing volatility to offer a “smooth ride” to DC participants may reduce fear and flight (i.e., shifting assets out of a strategy) in rougher
markets. Strategies with less volatility and lower correlation with both equities and other asset classes already on the menu may add value. We suggest
fiduciaries compare estimated volatilities and correlations to those of the S&P 500.
Plans may consider offering a low-duration strategy. These may reduce estimated volatility by about 60% to 1.8% from 4.1% for the BAGG (both at year-end 2013). Another approach could be a foreign U.S. dollar-hedged bond strategy that may offer lower volatility and
other potential risk-mitigation benefits. Our analysis suggests that both low duration and foreign U.S. dollar-hedged bond strategies may reduce estimated equity correlations.Downside risk:
Does the bond choice mitigate downside risk? What type of loss may participants experience in various market environments?
Although there are many ways to measure potential loss, we suggest evaluating risk exposure by assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) at a 95% confidence level
(VaR estimates the minimum expected loss at a desired level of significance over 12 months) or similar appropriate downside risk measures. Plans may
realize the greatest opportunity to reduce downside risk by adding low duration and foreign U.S. dollar-hedged strategies. At the end of 2013, the BAGG
had a VaR (at 95%) of 4.6%, while the comparable figure was just 1.2% for low duration and 4.0% for foreign U.S. dollar-hedged bond strategies.
U.S. rate exposure:
Is your bond strategy sufficiently diversified to reduce exposure to U.S. interest rate risks? We propose you consider nominal duration, both overall
and U.S.-specific. Based on our index analysis, low duration and the blended index of global credit, high yield and EM bond strategies all offer lower duration-risk potential than the BAGG.
A balanced approachThe challenges of strengthening bond lineups in DC plans can be complex, but needn’t be overwhelming. We suggest looking first at the current mix of
investment options and ways to improve it. This may lead sponsors to replace suboptimal solutions, possibly money market funds and passively managed core
bond strategies. It also may prompt sponsors to offer more choices, either as stand-alone core menu offerings or blended within a custom core strategy. As
you consider your core, we suggest that fiduciaries model the potential effects of adding or combining solutions.
In the end, there may be no correct answer to the question of how many offerings should be on a DC plan’s investment menu. It depends. But if sponsors can
offer a range of options consistent with the needs of plan participants – and present them in a way that reduces the risk of naïve diversification – it may
go a long way towards helping employees achieve their retirement-savings goals.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. Absolute return
portfolios may not fully participate in strong positive market rallies. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including
market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest
rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall
as interest rates rise, and the current low interest rate environment increases this risk. Current reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute
to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed.Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and industry conditions. Money Markets are not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC or any other government agency and although they seek to preserve the value of
your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money. Stable value wrap contracts are subject to credit and management risk.
Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and
political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. High yield, lower-rated securities involve greater risk than higher-rated
securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Corporate debt securities are subject to the risk of the issuer’s inability to meet principal and interest payments on the obligation and
may also be subject to price volatility due to factors such as interest rate sensitivity, market perception of the creditworthiness of the issuer and
general market liquidity. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and
the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. Investors should
consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision.
Correlation (Estimated)We employed a block bootstrap methodology to calculate the correlation between assets. We start by computing historical risk factor returns that underlie
each asset class proxy from January 1997 through the present date. We then draw a set of 12 monthly returns within the dataset to come up with an annual
return number. This process is repeated 25,000 times to have a return series with 25,000 annualized returns. The standard deviation of these annual returns
is used to model the volatility for each factor. We then use the same return series for each factor to compute covariance between factors. Finally, asset
class volatilities and correlations are calculated as a function of their exposures to risk factors, and those underlying factors’ volatilities and
correlations. Our models also account for non-factor risk (“idiosyncratic risk”).
Morningstar OE Intermediate-Term Bond CategoryIntermediate-term bond category includes portfolios that invest primarily in corporate and other investment-grade U.S. fixed-income issues and typically
have durations of 3.5 to 6.0 years. These portfolios are less sensitive to interest rates, and therefore less volatile, than portfolios that have longer
durations. The portfolios included in this study are benchmarked to the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index.
Universe DescriptioneVestment US Core Fixed Income – US Fixed Income products that invest in High Quality debt (as rated by Moody’s or Standard & Poor’s). Expected
benchmarks for this universe would include the Barclays Capital Aggregate and Barclays Capital Govt/Credit. Managers in this category will typically
indicate a “Fixed Income Style Emphasis” equal to Core and a “Product Duration Emphasis” equal to Core or Intermediate.
Value at Risk (VAR)
estimates the risk of loss of an investment or portfolio over a given time period under normal market conditions in terms of a specific percentile
threshold of loss (i.e., for a given threshold of X%, under the specific modeling assumptions used, the portfolio will incur a loss in excess of the VAR X
percent of the time. Different VAR calculation methodologies may be used. VAR models can help understand what future return or loss profiles might be.
However, the effectiveness of a VAR calculation is in fact constrained by its limited assumptions (for example, assumptions may involve, among other
things, probability distributions, historical return modeling, factor selection, risk factor correlation, simulation methodologies). It is important that
investors understand the nature of these limitations when relying upon VAR analyses.
Volatility (Estimated)We employed a block bootstrap methodology to calculate volatilities. We start by computing historical factor returns that underlie each asset class proxy
from January 1997 through the present date. We then draw a set of 12 monthly returns within the dataset to come up with an annual return number. This
process is repeated 25,000 times to have a return series with 25,000 annualized returns. The standard deviation of these annual returns is used to model
the volatility for each factor. We then use the same return series for each factor to compute covariance between factors. Finally, volatility of each asset
class proxy is calculated as the sum of variances and covariance of factors that underlie that particular proxy. For each asset class, index, or strategy
proxy, we will look at either a point in time estimate or historical average of factor exposures in order to determine the total volatility. Please contact
your PIMCO representative for more details on how specific proxy factor exposures are estimated.
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index
represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment grade fixed rate bond market, with
index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. These major sectors are subdivided
into more specific indices that are calculated and reported on a regular basis. BofA Merrill Lynch 1-3 Yr Treasury Index is an unmanaged
index that tracks the performance of the direct sovereign debt of the U.S. Government having a maturity between one to three years. JPMorgan GBI Global ex-US USD Hedged is an unmanaged index representative of the total return performance in U.S. dollars of major
non-U.S. bond markets. Barclays Global Credit Hedged USD contains investment grade and high yield credit securities from the Multiverse
represented in U.S. Dollars on a hedged basis. (Multiverse is the merger of two groups: the Global Aggregate and the Global High Yield). BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield, BB-B Rated, Constrained Index tracks the performance
of BB-B Rated US Dollar-denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the US domestic market. Qualifying bonds are capitalization-weighted provided the
total allocation to an individual issuer (defined by Bloomberg tickers) does not exceed 2%. Issuers that exceed the limit are reduced to 2% and the face
value of each of their bonds is adjusted on a pro-rata basis. Similarly, the face value of bonds of all other issuers that fall below the 2% cap are
increased on a pro-rata basis. The JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global is an unmanaged index which tracks the total return of
U.S.-dollar-denominated debt instruments issued by emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities: Brady Bonds, loans, Eurobonds, and local market
instruments. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
This material contains the opinions of the authors but not necessarily those of PIMCO and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material
has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security,
strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this
material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO and YOUR GLOBAL INVESTMENT
AUTHORITY are trademarks or registered trademarks of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. and Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, respectively,
in the United States and throughout the world. ©2014, PIMCO.
No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660, 800-387-4626. ©2014, PIMCO.
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