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Economic Outlook

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Insights Overview Summary
Each quarter, PIMCO’s investment professionals from around the globe gather to update the firm’s global economic outlook. Three of these meetings – March, September and December – focus on the cyclical outlook for the next six to 12 months, while the May economic forum focuses on the secular outlook for the next three to five years. These macro outlooks underpin our global investment process.
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Mohamed A. El-Erian
Economic Outlook
May 2012
Secular Outlook: Policy Confusions & Inflection Points
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Robert Mead
Tomoya Masanao
Ramin Toloui
Economic Outlook
April 2012
Asia-Pacific Portfolio Committee on PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook
​Although Asia in 2009 played a catalytic role in leading the global economy out of the crisis, we expect in 2012 that the region is more likely to take its cue from events in Europe and the U.S.
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Andrew Balls
Economic Outlook
March 2012
​Andrew Balls Discusses PIMCO's European Cyclical Outlook

We expect the U.K. economy to be flat to slightly negative and the eurozone to fall into recession in 2012, with the weakest growth stemming from peripheral countries that are undergoing big fiscal retrenchments and weak growth overall.​

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Saumil H. Parikh
Economic Outlook
March 2012
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: Navigating the Hurricane of Global Deleveraging

​We recognize the dynamics of economic and balance sheet healing but remain concerned that, in some key areas, they have not yet reached critical mass.

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Mihir P. Worah
Nicholas J. Johnson
Economic Outlook
February 2012
Inflation Outlook 2012: Benign, But Watch the Tails
​
PIMCO expects modest inflation this year in the U.S., but there are upside and downside risks to that scenario.
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Robert Mead
​Isaac Meng
Raja Mukherji
Economic Outlook
January 2012
Asia-Pacific Portfolio Managers Discuss PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook
​Emerging Asia will continue to perform well this year but will not be the world’s savior.
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Saumil H. Parikh
Economic Outlook
December 2011
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: Deleveraging, Austerity and Europe’s Potential Minsky Moment
As goes the eurozone deleveraging, so goes the global economy over the next six to 12 months. ​
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Robert Mead
Tomoya Masanao
​Isaac Meng
Economic Outlook
October 2011
Asia-Pacific Portfolio Committee Discusses Cyclical Outlook for Globe and Region

​Although Emerging Asia will likely continue to be a growth outperformer, its growth is expected to slow down, and in our view it will not emerge as the world’s savior this time.

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Saumil H. Parikh
Economic Outlook
September 2011
PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: Growth Risks, Policy Polarization and Rethinking Returns

​PIMCO sees global growth slowing and investment returns influenced by political divides and policymaking incentives.

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Lupin Rahman
Economic Outlook
July 2011
Are Emerging Markets Ready to Lead the Global Economy?

​Emerging economies are dynamic centers of growth but face challenges to surpassing developed nations.

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