We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
EM as a whole stands to potentially benefit from China’s post-pandemic economic reopening, with differentiation among individual countries as global trade allegiances shift.
China’s central government puts high-quality growth as top priority, along with continued support for business and opening-up.
As the COVID-19 recovery continues, we expect Asia’s growth-inflation dynamics to diverge from the rest of the world, led by China’s long-awaited economic reopening.
China’s introduction of comprehensive support for its real estate sector could provide some cyclical relief amidst longer-term headwinds, but new COVID-19 waves cloud the outlook.
Stability, security and self-reliance were overarching themes from China’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. With few details disclosed on near-term supporting policies, we remain cautious on the Chinese market.
Economic and financial ties between the world's two biggest economies are increasingly fraying. We discuss the long-term outlook and implications for investors.
Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.
While Beijing has set an ambitious growth target this year with a generous fiscal stimulus plan, new COVID-19 waves are adding to mounting headwinds amid a slowing global economy.