We’ve seen increased interest in risk mitigation solutions that combine multiple alternative strategies in an effort to enhance portfolio diversification. We’ve partnered with Paul Murray, an allocator with experience in implementing defensive alternatives for the Future Fund and the Victorian Funds Management Corporation in Australia, to share his insights, along with PIMCO’s perspectives from our partnerships with some of the most sophisticated institutions globally.

Institutional portfolios are often dominated by pro-cyclical risks originating from equity and other long risk-asset exposures that are relied on to pursue long-term positive returns. To sustain pro-cyclical exposures over multi-year horizons, institutional portfolios often make high quality fixed income allocations, where duration exposure is relied on to hopefully buoy portfolios during cyclical downturns. This has broadly worked well across recent decades, and may well continue in the future, but 2022 reminded investors to consider the potential portfolio impact of an abrupt shift in stock-bond correlations from being negative to positive. This correlation regime shift, coupled with high levels of macroeconomic uncertainty around inflation and economic growth, is leading many investors to incorporate defensive alternatives. Investors are realizing the appeal of “diversifying their diversifiers” by embracing new strategies to improve the robustness of their policy portfolio.

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The Author

Paul Murray

Founder, Paul Murray Consulting

Ashish Tiwari

Product Strategy, Asia-Pacific and Hedge Funds

Chris Santore

Quantitative Strategies

Fabian Dienemann

Quantitative Research Analyst

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Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

The analysis contained in this paper is based on hypothetical modeling. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Because of limitations of these modeling techniques, we make no representation that use of these models will actually reflect future results, or that any investment actually will achieve results similar to those shown. Hypothetical or simulated performance modeling techniques have inherent limitations. These techniques do not predict future actual performance and are limited by assumptions that future market events will behave similarly to historical time periods or theoretical models. Future events very often occur to causal relationships not anticipated by such models, and it should be expected that sharp differences will often occur between the results of these models and actual investment results.

Return assumptions are for illustrative purposes only and are not a prediction or a projection of return. Return assumption is an estimate of what investments may earn on average over a 5 year period. Actual returns may be higher or lower than those shown and may vary substantially over shorter time periods. Return assumptions are subject to change without notice.

Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. There is no guarantee that results will be achieved.

Figures are provided for illustrative purposes and are not indicative of the past or future performance of any PIMCO product.

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Catastrophe (Cat) Bonds are insurance securitizations, structured similarly to traditional bonds, where a specified set of risks is purchased by investors; if a triggering catastrophe occurs prior to maturity investors may lose most or all of their accrued interest and principal. Commodities contain heightened risk, including market, political, regulatory and natural conditions, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Hedge fund and other alternatives strategies involve a high degree of risk and prospective investors are advised that these strategies are suitable only for persons of adequate financial means who have no need for liquidity with respect to their investment and who can bear the economic risk, including the possible complete loss, of their investment. Performance could be volatile; an investment in a fund may lose money. Tail risk hedging may involve entering into financial derivatives that are expected to increase in value during the occurrence of tail events. Investing in a tail event instrument could lose all or a portion of its value even in a period of severe market stress. A tail event is unpredictable; therefore, investments in instruments tied to the occurrence of a tail event are speculative. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and industry conditions. Diversification does not ensure against loss.

Asset allocation is the process of distributing investments among various classes of investments (e.g., stocks and bonds). It does not guarantee future results, ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. The allocation models are not based on any particularized financial situation, or need, and are not intended to be, and should not be construed as, a forecast, research, investment advice or a recommendation for any specific PIMCO or other strategy, product or service. Individuals should consult with their own financial advisors to determine the most appropriate allocations for their financial situation, including their investment objectives, time frame, risk tolerance, savings and other investments.

Bloomberg Global Aggregate (USD Hedged) Index provides a broad-based measure of the global investment-grade fixed income markets. The three major components of this index are the U.S. Aggregate, the Pan-European Aggregate, and the Asian-Pacific Aggregate Indices. The index also includes Eurodollar and Euro-Yen corporate bonds, Canadian Government securities, and USD investment grade 144A securities. Bloomberg Gold Total Return Index reflects the return of fully collateralized positions in the underlying gold futures. The Cboe S&P 500 5% Put Protection IndexSM (PPUT) tracks the value of a hypothetical portfolio of securities (PPUT portfolio) designed to protect an investor from negative S&P 500 returns. The PPUT portfolio is composed of S&P 500® stocks and of a long position in a one-month 5% out-of-the-money put option on the S&P 500 (SPX put). strong>HFRI Market Defensive Index, is an unmanaged index that includes FOFs classified as 'Market Defensive' that exhibit one or more of the following characteristics: invests in funds that generally engage in short-biased strategies such as short selling and managed futures; shows a negative correlation to the general market benchmarks. A fund in the FOF Market Defensive Index exhibits higher returns during down markets than during up markets. ICE BofA U.S. ABS & CMBS Index tracks the performance of U.S. dollar denominated investment grade fixed and floating rate asset backed securities and fixed rate commercial mortgage backed securities publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market. The MSCI All Country World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. The Index consists of 47 country indices comprising 23 developed and 24 emerging market country indices. The SG Trend Index calculates the net daily rate of return for a group of 10 trend following CTAs selected from the largest managers open to new investment. The SG Trend Index is equal-weighted and reconstituted annually and has become recognized as the key managed futures trend following performance benchmark. The SG Multi Alternative Risk Premia Index represents risk premia managers who employ investment programs diversified across multiple asset classes while utilizing multiple risk premia factors. S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market index generally considered representative of the stock market as a whole. The Index focuses on the large-cap segment of the U.S. equities market. Swiss Re Global Cat Bond Index tracks the aggregate performance of all catastrophe bonds issued offered Rule 144A. The index captures bonds denominated in any currency, all rated and unrated cat bonds, outstanding perils, and triggers. It is not possible to invest directly into an unmanaged index.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America LLC in the United States and throughout the world. ©2023, PIMCO.

CMR2023-0314-2790257