Municipal Monthly

Monthly Municipal Market Update, November 2020

A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.

Figure 1 is a market snapshot table displaying yield and spread data as of 30 November 2020 for municipal bond markets and U.S. Treasury markets in maturities of 2, 5, 10, and 30 years. It also displays year-to-date data on municipal market issuance, fund flows, and index returns. Key takeaways are discussed in the copy within the article.

Month in Review

The U.S. stock market surged in November, erasing October’s losses even amid a rising number of coronavirus infections. Propelled by progress toward potential coronavirus vaccines and hopes for a relatively smooth transition to power for president-elect Joe Biden, major U.S. equity indices closed the month with double-digit gains. Footnote 1 Meanwhile, the municipal market was characterized by a falloff in supply and robust demand. In the wake of October’s $72+ billion of issuance, just $18.8 billion was brought to market in November, of which $4.8 billion was taxable. Monthly issuance not only fell to its low-water mark for the year, but also represented the weakest monthly figure since February 2018. Footnote 2 Decreased supply, coupled with increased demand for longer-duration bonds, resulted in a bull flattener for the AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD) curve. Yields dropped by 5-7 basis points (bps) inside of 5 years, by 11-21 basis points from 6-10 years, by 23-29 bps from 11-15 years, and by 30 bps beyond 15 years. Footnote 3 Entering the holiday season, net negative supply may provide a tailwind for the municipal market as we close out 2020.

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Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

A word about risk: Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Income from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax and may be subject to state and local taxes and at times the alternative minimum tax; a strategy concentrating in a single or limited number of states is subject to greater risk of adverse economic conditions and regulatory changes.

References to specific securities and their issuers are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase, sell or hold such securities. PIMCO products and strategies may or may not include the securities referenced and, if such securities are included, no representation is being made that such securities will continue to be included.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based on proprietary research and should not be interpreted as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation, nor as the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, and/or other costs. In addition, references to future results should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a client portfolio may achieve.

PIMCO and Gurtin do not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your tax and/or legal counsel for specific tax or legal questions and concerns. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Any tax statements contained herein are not intended or written to be used, and cannot be relied upon or used for the purpose of avoiding penalties imposed by the Internal Revenue Service or state and local tax authorities. Individuals should consult their own legal and tax counsel as to matters discussed herein and before entering into any estate planning, trust, investment, retirement, or insurance arrangement.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. This market update was provided by Gurtin Municipal Bond Management, a PIMCO company (“Gurtin”). This material contains the current opinions of Gurtin and PIMCO. The commentary provided herein represents Gurtin’s assessment of the market environment at a specific time and the opinions and information stated and relied upon herein may become outdated, change, or otherwise be superseded at any time without notice. Certain information contained in this report is based upon third party sources, which Gurtin and PIMCO believe to be reliable, but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2020, PIMCO.

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CMR2020-1209-1442603

Monthly Municipal Market Update, February 2021
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