Viewpoints Asia Market Outlook 2021: Attractive Opportunities As Economies Rebound We are constructive on the macroeconomic picture in Asia as the global economy gradually recovers.
In our latest Cyclical Outlook, “Bounded Optimism on the Global Economy” we described our expectations that global output and demand are likely to rebound strongly in 2021, driven by the rollout of vaccines and continued fiscal and monetary policy support. We noted that the Chinese economy, which already operates above pre-crisis levels and has exhibited strong growth momentum into the new year, should record GDP growth above 8% in 2021, after a decidedly subpar 2% or so last year. However, one of the three key risks to our outlook was the likely transition in China from credit easing to tightening in the course of the year. We expect to see a rebound in the economies of India and Indonesia also during the course of this year, with government stimulus supporting public investment and consumption, although private investment continues to contract. For both countries, the swing factors will be COVID-19 containment and effective vaccination programs. To Read the Full Article Log In Or Register
Viewpoints What China’s Odyssey Towards “Common Prosperity” Means for Portfolios China’s regulatory crackdown focuses on specific sectors. Market volatility will likely be temporary, and long-run prospects for active investors remain robust.
Blog China’s Property Sector Slump: Is Recovery on the Horizon? In the absence of immediate and substantive policy easing at the national level, we believe that the sector could pose a serious risk to the government’s GDP growth target in 2022.
Blog China Growth Outlook: Counting the Cost of Lockdowns While Beijing has set an ambitious growth target this year with a generous fiscal stimulus plan, new COVID-19 waves are adding to mounting headwinds amid a slowing global economy.