Viewpoints

Asia Market Outlook 2022: Diversified Opportunities Amid Volatility

Active management appears especially important during this fast-moving cycle when dislocations are likely and capturing resulting opportunities can be key to producing alpha.

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Our latest Cyclical Outlook,Investing in a Fast-Moving Cycle” describes our view that the global economy appears to be rapidly progressing toward late-cycle dynamics. Monetary policy in most regions has shifted towards normalization, with global inflation likely to peak by 1Q 2022 before moderating closer to central bank targets by year-end.

Broadly speaking, our 2022 outlook suggests above-trend (albeit slowing) growth and moderating inflation prompting a still gradual tightening in developed market monetary conditions. Nevertheless, our base case faces three key risks: persistently elevated inflation, a tightening of financial conditions more abruptly than expected, and COVID variants.

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The Author

Subhash Ganga

Portfolio Manager, Asia Emerging Markets

Stephen Chang

Portfolio Manager, Asia

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All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Commodities contain heightened risk, including market, political, regulatory and natural conditions, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Currency rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time and may reduce the returns of a portfolio. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Sovereign securities are generally backed by the issuing government. Obligations of U.S. government agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees, but are generally not backed by the full faith of the U.S. government. Portfolios that invest in such securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in value. High yield, lower-rated securities involve greater risk than higher-rated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Diversification does not ensure against loss.

Alpha is a measure of performance on a risk-adjusted basis calculated by comparing the volatility (price risk) of a portfolio vs. its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index; the excess return relative to the benchmark is alpha. Beta is a measure of price sensitivity to market movements. Market beta is 1.

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