Viewpoints Emerging Markets in the Age of Transformation As accelerated disruption transforms the macro environment, we expect more volatility – and investment opportunity – within emerging markets.
Accelerated by the COVID pandemic, secular trends are disrupting the global macroeconomic environment. Accordingly, we have updated our framework for gauging risks and opportunities in emerging markets (EM).Over the past two decades, emerging markets have typically been “condition takers,” each country having some degree of sensitivity to Chinese economic growth and U.S. interest rates. Yet we believe these traditional external drivers will ebb in importance. In fact, we foresee slower Chinese GDP growth dampening its influence on EM business cycles. And the “low for longer” U.S. interest rate backdrop should lessen the U.S. Federal Reserve’s influence on capital flows to emerging markets, in our view. To Read the Full Article Log In Or Register
Viewpoints Opportunities in Private Credit: Stepping In as Banks Step Out As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.
Blog October CPI: Small Surprise, Large Market Reaction U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, and bond markets rallied, but the Fed is likely to remain in a long pause.
Asset Allocation Outlook Prime Time for Bonds In our 2024 outlook, bonds emerge as a standout asset class, offering strong prospects, resilience, diversification, and attractive valuations compared with equities.
Municipal Monthly October Municipal Market Update: Examining End‑of‑Year Trends Amid High Absolute Yields We review the latest developments in the municipal bond market and discuss how high absolute yields, coupled with a historically supportive end-of-year environment, may offer an attractive entry point for investors.
Strategy Spotlight Income Fund Update: Poised for Resilience and Potential Price Appreciation We see meaningful value in high quality, more liquid bonds that offer compelling yields and potential price appreciation should the economy weaken.
Blog Despite Resilient Data, Fed Signals Prolonged Pause Tighter financial conditions prompted Federal Reserve officials to take a step back from data dependence, and suggest a higher bar for future hikes.
Blog ECB on Autopilot The ECB may raise rates further, but we believe the yield sell-off makes European duration increasingly attractive.
Viewpoints Secular Stars: Why India and Indonesia Are Set to Shine as Global Economic Leaders We believe the two resource-rich economies – once labeled fragile – will be global growth leaders over the next several years, driven by prudent policies and stable macro fundamentals.
Viewpoints China’s Reopening, Trade Tensions Create Opportunities Within Emerging Markets EM as a whole stands to potentially benefit from China’s post-pandemic economic reopening, with differentiation among individual countries as global trade allegiances shift.
Blog 5 Key Takeaways from China’s 14th National People’s Congress China’s central government puts high-quality growth as top priority, along with continued support for business and opening-up.