Foreword – December 2020

Since PIMCO’s founding in 1971, our investment process has incorporated rigorous, in-depth market and economic research. We often share this research with our clients, but some we keep for internal reference, where it informs our high-level portfolio management discussions and decisions. 

One such internal-use piece was written in August 2010 by Chris Dialynas, one of our longest-tenured portfolio managers. In this research paper, entitled “No Exit,” Chris surmised that central bank asset purchase programs and fiscal policy may offer no solution to global economic imbalances that are largely driven by the U.S./China trade relationship and currency policy. The title “No Exit” refers to Jean-Paul Sartre’s play of the same name, drawing comparisons with characters who would rather remain trapped inside a room than face the unknown and potentially uncomfortable truths outside.

We are now sharing “No Exit” in its tenth anniversary year – in its original form – to offer readers a window into Chris’s insights and the kinds of research and discussions that drive the PIMCO investment process. Many of the structural causes of disruption that underpin PIMCO’s secular theme of “Escalating Disruption” were envisioned ten years ago in “No Exit,” including trade tension, geopolitical risk, income inequality, and rising populism.

“No Exit” is far from perfect, but many of its insights have materialized in the real economy, policy, and financial markets. For example, global interest rates remain at extraordinarily low levels, fiscal deficits support growth in many regions, and many central bankers forecast low policy rates for years to come.

Please note we are sharing this research paper in its original, unedited format from August 2010. The opinions are those of the author as of that date, and do not necessarily reflect PIMCO’s views then or now.

– Marc Seidner, CIO Non-traditional Strategies, PIMCO, December 2020

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The Author

Chris Dialynas

Portfolio Manager, Generalist

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PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily those of PIMCO and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2020, PIMCO.

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