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It won’t be realized inflation that derails a Fed hike in March.
A close look at today’s CPI report reveals reasons for optimism on both inflation and growth.
Wage pressures may finally be building. The Labor Department recently reported that average hourly earnings for private employees rose 0.4% month-over-month – a 2.5% year-over-year rate that was the highest reading since 2009. And then October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report provided evidence that this is feeding through to consumer prices.
Thursday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report offers cautious optimism that wages may start to rise.
Wednesday’s modestly disappointing CPI report provided an endorsement of our view: Core goods inflation continued to decline, falling 0.08% over the previous month, while shelter inflation grew at 0.22%, modestly softer than its recent trend.
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Portfolio Manager, Real Return
Mr. Hayes is a senior vice president and portfolio manager on the global corporate bond team in the Newport Beach office. Previously, he focused on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Treasury bonds, agencies and interest rate derivatives and also worked on the emerging markets desk. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2011, he was an assistant vice president for Barclays Capital, where he traded interest rate options and agencies. He has 12 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from Columbia Business School as well as an undergraduate degree from Harvard University.