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Carol Liao

China Economist

Ms. Liao is a senior vice president and China economist based in the Hong Kong office. She is responsible for crafting the firm’s outlook for the Chinese economy and monetary policy, and identifying key regional macro risks and investment trends. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2020, she was the senior China economist at J.P. Morgan for three years. Previously, she served as the China economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2013–2016, where she helped formulate the IMF’s view on China macroeconomics and policies. Earlier in her career, she worked for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. She has 14 years of investment and financial services experience and holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University.

Latest Insights

What China’s Odyssey Towards “Common Prosperity” Means for Portfolios
China’s regulatory crackdown focuses on specific sectors. Market volatility will likely be temporary, and long-run prospects for active investors remain robust.
Asia Market Outlook 2021: Attractive Opportunities As Economies Rebound
We are constructive on the macroeconomic picture in Asia as the global economy gradually recovers.
China’s Decarbonization Goal Won’t Dent its Appetite for Commodities Any Time Soon
China expected to boost demand for some commodities as it transitions to a carbon-neutral economy.
Asia Market Outlook 2022: Diversified Opportunities Amid Volatility
Active management appears especially important during this fast-moving cycle when dislocations are likely and capturing resulting opportunities can be key to producing alpha.
Trading Geopolitics: The Long View on Growing U.S.-China Tensions
Economic and financial ties between the world's two biggest economies are increasingly fraying. We discuss the long-term outlook and implications for investors.
China Steps Up Property Support: Is This the Turning Point for the Struggling Sector?
China’s introduction of comprehensive support for its real estate sector could provide some cyclical relief amidst longer-term headwinds, but new COVID-19 waves cloud the outlook.
Down, Not Out: 5 Things to Know About China's Power Crunch
While the recent energy crisis has disrupted China’s economy, we do not expect a significant drag on growth.
Implications of China’s Credit Curtail
China’s economy should see a soft landing as stimulus is reduced, but the drag on global growth may place a burden on developed economies to keep stimulus taps open for longer.
Supply Bottlenecks Likely to Ease by the End of the Year
The supply-demand imbalance should ease as spending on services outpaces demand for consumer goods in developed markets.
China’s Anti-Trust Campaign: Impact on Growth Should Be Limited
Pro-competition policies aim to foster healthy development in the tech industry.
Continuity and Concrete Direction: Takeaways From China’s 20th Party Congress
Stability, security and self-reliance were overarching themes from China’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. With few details disclosed on near-term supporting policies, we remain cautious on the Chinese market.
China Growth Outlook: Counting the Cost of Lockdowns
While Beijing has set an ambitious growth target this year with a generous fiscal stimulus plan, new COVID-19 waves are adding to mounting headwinds amid a slowing global economy.
What China’s Recovering Supply Chain Means for Global Inflation
Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.
Asia Market Outlook 2023: Regional Resilience Amid Strained Global Markets
08 February 2023
As the COVID-19 recovery continues, we expect Asia’s growth-inflation dynamics to diverge from the rest of the world, led by China’s long-awaited economic reopening.
5 Key Takeaways from China’s 14th National People’s Congress
17 March 2023
China’s central government puts high-quality growth as top priority, along with continued support for business and opening-up.