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Carol Liao

China Economist

Ms. Liao is a senior vice president and China economist based in the Hong Kong office. She is responsible for crafting the firm’s outlook for the Chinese economy and monetary policy, and identifying key regional macro risks and investment trends. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2020, she was the senior China economist at J.P. Morgan for three years. Previously, she served as the China economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2013–2016, where she helped formulate the IMF’s view on China macroeconomics and policies. Earlier in her career, she worked for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. She has 15 years of investment and financial services experience and holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University.
Carol Liao
Local Government Financing Vehicles: A Growing Risk for China’s Economy?
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
China’s Reopening, Trade Tensions Create Opportunities Within Emerging Markets
EM as a whole stands to potentially benefit from China’s post-pandemic economic reopening, with differentiation among individual countries as global trade allegiances shift.
5 Key Takeaways from China’s 14th National People’s Congress
China’s central government puts high-quality growth as top priority, along with continued support for business and opening-up.
Asia Market Outlook 2023: Regional Resilience Amid Strained Global Markets
As the COVID-19 recovery continues, we expect Asia’s growth-inflation dynamics to diverge from the rest of the world, led by China’s long-awaited economic reopening.
China Steps Up Property Support: Is This the Turning Point for the Struggling Sector?
China’s introduction of comprehensive support for its real estate sector could provide some cyclical relief amidst longer-term headwinds, but new COVID-19 waves cloud the outlook.
Continuity and Concrete Direction: Takeaways From China’s 20th Party Congress
Stability, security and self-reliance were overarching themes from China’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. With few details disclosed on near-term supporting policies, we remain cautious on the Chinese market.
Trading Geopolitics: The Long View on Growing U.S.-China Tensions
Economic and financial ties between the world's two biggest economies are increasingly fraying. We discuss the long-term outlook and implications for investors.
What China’s Recovering Supply Chain Means for Global Inflation
Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.
China Growth Outlook: Counting the Cost of Lockdowns
While Beijing has set an ambitious growth target this year with a generous fiscal stimulus plan, new COVID-19 waves are adding to mounting headwinds amid a slowing global economy.
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