Ms. Liao is a senior vice president and China economist based in the Hong Kong office. She is responsible for crafting the firm’s outlook for the Chinese economy and monetary policy, and identifying key regional macro risks and investment trends. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2020, she was the senior China economist at J.P. Morgan for three years. Previously, she served as the China economist at the International Monetary Fund from 2013–2016, where she helped formulate the IMF’s view on China macroeconomics and policies. Earlier in her career, she worked for the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. She has 15 years of investment and financial services experience and holds a Ph.D. in economics from New York University.
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
EM as a whole stands to potentially benefit from China’s post-pandemic economic reopening, with differentiation among individual countries as global trade allegiances shift.
China’s central government puts high-quality growth as top priority, along with continued support for business and opening-up.
As the COVID-19 recovery continues, we expect Asia’s growth-inflation dynamics to diverge from the rest of the world, led by China’s long-awaited economic reopening.
China’s introduction of comprehensive support for its real estate sector could provide some cyclical relief amidst longer-term headwinds, but new COVID-19 waves cloud the outlook.
Stability, security and self-reliance were overarching themes from China’s twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle. With few details disclosed on near-term supporting policies, we remain cautious on the Chinese market.
Economic and financial ties between the world's two biggest economies are increasingly fraying. We discuss the long-term outlook and implications for investors.
Renewed growth in China’s manufacturing activity, coupled with softening developed market demand, should ease some supply-side pressures – but several other inflation risks remain prevalent.
Active management appears especially important during this fast-moving cycle when dislocations are likely and capturing resulting opportunities can be key to producing alpha.