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The Fed’s “opportunistic tightening” campaign risks cementing inflation expectations below the target.
Will it be shallow but long or deep but quick? We outline two possible scenarios.
When we look at the state of industry in 2017 from the bottom up, we see a global economy with underappreciated potential.
A bottom-up look at major industries around the world reveals significant potential for productivity growth.
European political risk will be important to watch in the year ahead.
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Global Economic Advisor
Mr. Fels is a managing director and global economic advisor based in the Newport Beach office. He is a member of the Investment Committee and leads PIMCO's quarterly Cyclical Forum process. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2015, he was global chief economist at Morgan Stanley in London. Previously he was an international economist at Goldman Sachs and a research associate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Mr. Fels was also a founding member of the ECB shadow council, a member of the economic and monetary committee of the Association of German Banks and served on the Asset Allocation Advisory Board of Volkswagen Foundation. He has 30 years of macro research experience and holds a diploma in international studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Bologna, Italy; a master's degree in economics from Universität des Saarlandes in Saarbrücken, Germany; and an undergraduate degree from Christian-Albrechts-Universität in Kiel, Germany.