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Secular forces in the global economy suggest we aren’t likely to see a new paradigm of stronger growth, higher inflation and higher interest rates under the Trump administration.
A more differentiated view of the potential long-term economic and policy consequences of President-elect Trump must take on board both the considerable uncertainties still surrounding the next U.S. administration’s economic policies and the global links between economies and markets.
We do not expect the dollar’s rally to gain much steam from here.
Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor, discusses PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for the U.S.
Joachim Fels, PIMCO Global Economic Advisor, discusses PIMCO’s Cyclical Outlook for European Markets.
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Global Economic Advisor
Mr. Fels is a managing director and global economic advisor based in the Newport Beach office. He is a member of the Investment Committee and co-leads PIMCO's quarterly Cyclical Forum process. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2015, he was global chief economist at Morgan Stanley in London. Previously he was an international economist at Goldman Sachs and a research associate at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Mr. Fels was also a founding member of the ECB shadow council, a member of the economic and monetary committee of the Association of German Banks and served on the Asset Allocation Advisory Board of Volkswagen Foundation. He has 29 years of macro research experience and holds a diploma in international studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Bologna, Italy; a master's degree in economics from Universität des Saarlandes in Saarbrücken, Germany; and an undergraduate degree from Christian-Albrechts-Universität in Kiel, Germany.