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While we believe a failure of the referendum to pass would hurt the country’s long-term political stability and reform prospects, we view the key risk to markets to be the election of an anti-establishment euroskeptic government – an outcome we think is unlikely irrespective of the referendum’s outcome.
The Brexit decision chiefly affects the UK, but it will also reverberate well beyond its borders. For the eurozone, the near-term macro implications are likely to be contained, though they are not insignificant.
Why the Spanish election may join the Brexit referendum in causing political risk in Europe to rise.
Questions remain over the ability of the Greek economy to return to growth and to adopt a sustainable financial and public-sector model over the medium term. In our view, however, such risks may take a while to materialize.
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Portfolio Manager, Sovereign Credit Analyst
Mr. Mai is an executive vice president in the London office and a sovereign credit analyst in the portfolio management group. He leads sovereign credit research in Europe and is responsible for formulating key macro views for the region. He is a member of the European Portfolio Committee and an expert on the eurozone sovereign crisis. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2012, Mr. Mai was senior euro area economist at J.P. Morgan for seven years. He started his career as an economist in the U.K. government, in a program run by HM Treasury. He has 14 years of investment and financial services experience and holds a graduate degree in economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra in Barcelona and an undergraduate degree in economics from the London School of Economics.