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June’s disappointing result raises questions about the likelihood of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year.
May’s inflation weakness was broad-based across goods and services categories and will be more difficult for Fed officials to dismiss as a “one-off.”
Unlike in March, April’s soft inflation across a range of core goods and services prices cannot be explained away by large, one-off price adjustments or other quirks in the data.
The factors driving the participation rate higher since November are somewhat different from those earlier in 2016.
When looking past the noise, we believe the data have continued to confirm our forecast for 2.2% core inflation in 2017.
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Ms. Wilding is a senior vice president and U.S. economist based in the Newport Beach office. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, she was director of global interest rate research at Tudor Investment, responsible for recommending trade ideas based on global macro trends. Previously, she was a vice president for U.S. interest rate research with Morgan Stanley and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. She has nine years of investment and economics/financial markets experience and holds an MBA from New York University's Stern School of Business. She received an undergraduate degree from Rhodes College.