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The factors driving the participation rate higher since November are somewhat different from those earlier in 2016.
When looking past the noise, we believe the data have continued to confirm our forecast for 2.2% core inflation in 2017.
CPI jumps. Trump may accelerate the trend.
We wonder if market participants – like business and consumer survey respondents – may be too focused on Trump’s pro-growth policies and not focused enough on the more controversial aspects of his agenda.
We think the recent modest deceleration in core inflation is an artifact of residual seasonality, holiday discounting and some deceleration in medical costs that may prove temporary.
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Ms. Wilding is a senior vice president and U.S. economist based in the Newport Beach office. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, she was director of global interest rate research at Tudor Investment, responsible for recommending trade ideas based on global macro trends. Previously, she was a vice president for U.S. interest rate research with Morgan Stanley and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. She has eight years of investment and economics/financial markets experience and holds an MBA from New York University's Stern School of Business. She received an undergraduate degree from Rhodes College.