Viewpoints Trading Geopolitics: The Long View on Growing U.S.-China Tensions Economic and financial ties between the world's two biggest economies are increasingly fraying. We discuss the long-term outlook and implications for investors.
Since the U.S.-China trade war began in 2018 with tit-for-tat tariffs, frictions between the two nations have flared in technology and finance. In addition, with the sanctions on Russia and escalating tensions over Taiwan, geopolitical considerations likely will gain more weight in investment decisions. While this situation poses rising geopolitical risks for investors compared to the past era of globalization, our medium-term baseline still expects mutual economic and financial interests between these two large economies will offset political pressures to act more quickly and dramatically. Instead, we anticipate a gradual trend of manufacturing and supply chain shifts over the next several years, balanced by mutual interests to maintain access to each other’s large domestic markets. To Read the Full Article Log In Or Register
Viewpoints Asia Market Outlook 2023: Regional Resilience Amid Strained Global Markets As the COVID-19 recovery continues, we expect Asia’s growth-inflation dynamics to diverge from the rest of the world, led by China’s long-awaited economic reopening.
Viewpoints Local Government Financing Vehicles: A Growing Risk for China’s Economy? We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
Blog Bond Markets Overlook U.S. Debt Trajectory, For Now Debt levels will likely continue to rise absent policy changes, and the yield curve is likely to steepen.