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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium delved into history but offered few clues about the future course of Fed policy.
While there is no additional hint in the July Fed minutes that the FOMC has agreed to make a balance sheet announcement in September, that continues to be the most likely outcome.
Look for the Fed to begin to put the balance sheet drawdown on autopilot this fall, but the next rate hike will truly be (inflation) data-dependent.
The Federal Reserve is likely to begin normalizing its balance sheet in 2017. Why hasn’t this news rattled the bond market?
The minutes of the June Fed meeting confirm that, while the FOMC is in broad agreement that the process should start later this year, there is a range of opinions with regard to precisely when.
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Global Strategic Advisor
Dr. Clarida is a managing director in the New York office and PIMCO's global strategic advisor. In this capacity he leads PIMCO's annual Secular Forum process and works closely with the Investment Committee to assess and analyze global monetary and fiscal policy trends. Since joining the firm in 2006, he has worked extensively with and served as a trusted adviser to the firm's many central bank and sovereign wealth fund clients. Prior to joining PIMCO, he gained extensive experience in Washington as assistant Treasury secretary, in academia as chairman of the economics department at Columbia University, and in the financial markets at Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 19 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. He received his undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois.