Allison Boxer
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Federal Reserve officials appear locked in for multiple rate cuts this year, despite inflation reaccelerating – raising questions about the speed and timing of this easing cycle.
Fed Slowly Building the Confidence to Cut
The Federal Reserve sees progress on inflation, but wants more certainty before it’s prepared to lower the policy rate.
The market anticipates a swift shift in the Fed cycle.
U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, and bond markets rallied, but the Fed is likely to remain in a long pause.
Tighter financial conditions prompted Federal Reserve officials to take a step back from data dependence, and suggest a higher bar for future hikes.
Inflation Headache Remains for the Fed
The latest inflation report raises the odds of further Federal Reserve action.
The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.
Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase
Amid an outlook for slower growth and more moderate inflation, the Fed shifts to data dependence.
After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.