Ms. Boxer is a senior vice president and economist in the New York office, focusing on the U.S. and Canada. She helps craft the firm’s economic and monetary policy outlook and contributes to quarterly economic forums. She is also a member of the research group of PIMCO’s Americas portfolio committee. She has nine years of investment experience and holds an undergraduate degree in economics from Tufts University.
The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.
After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.
The Federal Reserve paused in June but raised its estimates for the policy rate later this year. We expect a July increase but remain skeptical about subsequent hikes.
We believe Canada’s banking sector is more insulated from some of the issues facing the U.S. banking system, and as a result, credit conditions in Canada may tighten less than in the U.S.
March inflation data may put the Federal Reserve close to its terminal policy rate this cycle, if it hasn’t already reached it.