Head of Credit Research, Asia Pacific
Ms. Lee is an executive vice president in the Singapore office and head of Asia-Pacific credit research. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2019, she spent 15 years with Lehman Brothers and (following its acquisition) Nomura as a sell-side analyst, most recently as the team head of Asia ex Japan flow credit analysis. Earlier in her career, she worked at Bank of East Asia, Chase Manhattan Bank, and ING Bank in various credit research functions. She has 26 years of investment experience and holds an MBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK). She received an undergraduate degree from the University of Hong Kong (HKU).
We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
Our stress tests show the Chinese banking sector as a whole can absorb shocks from a severe downside scenario, but mid-sized banks and contagion pose potential risks.
Following strong double-digit profit growth in FY2021, we expect Chinese banks will be less profitable this year as COVID-19 lockdowns continue to disrupt China’s economy.
In the absence of immediate and substantive policy easing at the national level, we believe that the sector could pose a serious risk to the government’s GDP growth target in 2022.
We do not expect widespread contagion across China’s real estate or banking sectors despite the challenging outlook.