- Large equity market drawdowns are related to a set of common factors centered around valuation, technical, and macroeconomic variables.
- These factors are indicative of the degree of equity market fragility, not only in the U.S. but also across other major developed markets.
- Although the U.S. is a key driver of global equity fragility, country-specific factors – particularly valuation – are still relevant.
This article develops a formal framework for assessing the likelihood of large equity market drawdowns. The authors estimate a parsimonious logistic regression model for both the United States and a cohort of four additional developed markets and find that market crashes have historically been associated with a set of factors centered around valuation, technical, and macroeconomic indicators. The authors show that their framework is effective for both recessionary and nonrecessionary drawdowns. Finally, they show that, although the United States is a fundamental driver of market fragility globally, country-specific factors are still relevant for predicting the likelihood of large equity market drawdowns.
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