Old-Fashioned Bond Math for a New-Fashioned Fed
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The evolution of credit spreads remains driven primarily by credit fundamentals, investor risk appetite, flows, and broader market technicals rather than relative value between Treasuries and swaps.
In the Warsh Fed's new era of two-way risk, bonds offer something rare: potential downside risk mitigation that investors get paid to hold.
Macro Signposts highlights takeaways from the data analysis conducted by our team of economists and other experts.
Commercial real estate is entering a new phase. Artificial intelligence and geopolitical volatility are reshaping how physical space is used and valued.
Higher earnings forecasts across corporate credit have raised the bar for second-quarter reporting, while AI hyperscaler capital spending is poised to continue to drive the narrative.
Higher rates, weaker underwriting, and software concentration are exposing vulnerabilities in direct lending and leveraged loans, while high yield bonds appear better positioned.
Macro Signposts highlights takeaways from the data analysis conducted by our team of economists and other experts.
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Mohit Mittal, CIO of core strategies, and Saurabh Sud, portfolio manager, explore PIMCO’s active credit approach – how they construct portfolios, navigate market complexity, and uncover value across market environments.
The world has shifted from unipolar to multipolar, and portfolios haven't caught up. Pramol Dhawan, head of emerging markets portfolio management, explains why emerging markets sit at the intersection of higher real yields, deeper diversification, and the AI and energy themes shaping the next cycle.
Starting yields haven't looked this attractive in decades. Group CIO Dan Ivascyn and Global Economic Advisor Richard Clarida join Kimberley Stafford, global head of product strategy, to talk resilience, geopolitics, and how a 14 trillion dollar CAPEX wave could reshape opportunities for fixed income investors.
Macro Signposts highlights takeaways from the data analysis conducted by our team of economists and other experts.