Municipal Monthly

Monthly Municipal Market Update, December 2020

A brief monthly update on what's happening in the municipal bond market.

Figure 1 is a market snapshot table displaying yield and spread data as of 31 December 2020 for municipal bond markets and U.S. Treasury markets in maturities of 2, 5, 10, and 30 years. It also displays year-to-date data on municipal market issuance, fund flows, and index returns. Key takeaways are discussed in the copy within the article.

December Month in Review

Major U.S. equity indices rose to record highs in December, even as coronavirus infections continued to rise and other measures of U.S. economic health, including consumer spending and employment figures, printed at unfavorable numbers.Footnote1 Despite a mixed short-term outlook, market participants appear to be gaining a more favorable long-term outlook as Americans begin receiving vaccinations and additional stimulus measures take effect. Meanwhile, the municipal market exhibited a continuation of seasonal dynamics, which began to take shape in November following the U.S. elections and have been characterized by relatively low supply and sustained demand.

In total, just $30.7 billion of new municipal issuance came to market in December, with taxable debt accounting for nearly $9.1 billion.* Even with the recent month’s relatively light calendar, however, total municipal issuance in 2020 exceeded $513.7 billion. This was driven in large part by the $184.9 billion in taxable deals – issued under both municipal and corporate CUSIPS – that came to market throughout the year. 2020 was a banner year for municipal issuance, as both taxable and total issuance climbed to the highest levels on record.Footnote2 Five consecutive weeks of municipal fund inflows in December also helped drive yields down by 1-2 basis points (bps) across the AAA Municipal Market Data (MMD), with the 10-year tenor closing the year at 71 bps.Footnote3

  • December’s FOMC meeting marked the Federal Reserve’s final of the year. At the meeting, Fed policy makers reinforced guidance set in previous meetings for supporting the economy with large-scale asset purchases (quantitative easing) and near-zero short-term rates. Fed officials affirmed that asset purchases are to remain at their current levels and frequencies “until substantial further progress has been made” toward the Fed’s broader employment and inflation goals. Additionally a survey of Fed officials points to short-term interest rates remaining near zero for at least three years.Footnote4
  • Municipal bonds closed the year with an additional month of positive performance. The Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index returned 0.61% in December, while the Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index was up 1.87% and the Bloomberg Barclays Taxable Municipal Index gained 1.08%. Final returns for the year of 2020 for the three indices totaled 5.21%, 4.89%, and 10.52%, respectively.Footnote5
  • Treasury yields, with the exception of some shorter tenors, largely moved in the opposite direction as municipal yields in December. While Treasuries closed out the year with positive performance, they underperformed municipals in the month of December, leading to further tightening in municipal/Treasury taxable-equivalent spreads.** At month-end, taxable-equivalent spreads equated to 11 bps at the one-year tenor (down from 13 bps), 1 bps at the five-year tenor (down from 3 bps), 28 bps at the 10-year tenor (down from 38 bps), and 70 bps at the 30-year tenor (down from 80 bps).Footnote6

Secondary market trade volume in December sprang back from its lowest level in more than a decade. Trades for the month totaled 657,000 (up from 549,000 in November) while par traded amounted to $193 billion (up from $159 billion).Footnote7

Muni technicals in focus: Munis remain resilient, and taxable munis are here to stay

In a month largely characterized by an influx of negative news related to the pandemic and its effects on the U.S. economy, markets closed the final days of the year on a slightly more positive note. Optimism surrounding a second stimulus bill and COVID-19 vaccine rollouts propelled major U.S. equity indices to record highs, even as the United States grappled with increasing coronavirus infection rates and economic weakness.Footnote8

As equities rallied, U.S. Treasury and AAA municipal yields experienced relatively little movement over the month. The U.S. Treasury yield curve underwent a bear steepener, with yields inside of three years flat or down by 2-3 basis points (bps), while yields at the 10-year tenor and beyond were up by 7-8 bps. Bolstered by seasonal supply/demand dynamics, the AAA MMD yield curve closed the month down by 1-2 bps at all tenors. The 10-year municipal/Treasury ratio closed out the year at 77%, only slightly higher than 2019’s final print of 75%.Footnote9

Municipals remained resilient through the final days of the year, with sustained demand for the asset class even as supply remained relatively low. Municipal funds experienced five consecutive weeks of inflows through December, carrying total muni fund flows for the year to $39.7 billion.Footnote10 Municipal credit spreads tightened over the month, helping drive the Bloomberg Barclays Municipal High Yield Bond Index’s 1.87% return.Footnote11 That said, municipal credit spreads remain wide relative to their pre-pandemic levels and relative to current corporate credit spreads.Footnote12 Taxable munis, which accounted for nearly 36% of 2020’s total municipal issuance, look to remain a dominant theme in the coming year. JP Morgan and Citi are each projecting nearly $200 billion in taxable sales for 2021, reinforcing the general belief that the recent surge in taxable issuance is part of a broader structural shift.Footnote13

Pivoting toward municipal credit, state and local governments were largely left out of the recently passed stimulus bill. Mayors and governors are now left hoping for additional pandemic relief under a Biden administration, as state and local government aid remains a Democratic priority. The prospects for such legislation have improved following Democratic victories in the Georgia Senate races. We do not believe the lack of federal aid to state and local governments will result in a wave of municipal defaults, although it does complicate budget decisions for municipal governments that are confronting uncertain economic conditions. The lack of direct federal relief likely means growing austerity measures on the part of state and local governments. We have already seen states cut back on spending for the first time since the global financial crisis, with General Fund spending in Fiscal Year 2021 declining by 5.5% from pre-COVID budget recommendations.Footnote14 This trend is likely to be exacerbated as states and cities craft budgets that currently assume no additional federal assistance.

Despite falling well short of the most optimistic hopes, the stimulus bill does carry with it some bright spots for the municipal market. While not seeing any direct aid, state and local governments’ tax collections and economies will benefit indirectly from the relief provided to companies and individuals. Sectors such as airports should benefit, as airlines are slated to receive $15 billion in aid, and hard-hit public transit districts that have seen broad ridership declines will receive $14 billion in assistance.Footnote15 The bill also allocates $82 billion in new relief for K-12 school districts and higher education.

Figure 2 shows muni/Treasury taxable equivalent spreads over a five-year period, with spreads tightening at both the 10-year tenor and 2-year tenor in December 2020. Figure 3 is a bar chart showing how yields fell over the past month across the length of the AAA MMD yield curve. Yields fell 1-2 basis points across all tenors of the curve. Figure 4 includes market data as detailed in tables, as of 31 December 2020.

To learn more about investing in municipals at PIMCO, please visit pimco.com/munis


1 Anna Hirtenstein, “Stocks Climb, Extending Record-Setting Rally,” Wall Street Journal, 29 Dec 2020; Josh Mitchell, “U.S. Household Spending Drops for First Time in Seven Months,” Wall Street Journal, 23 Dec Nov 2020
2 The Bond Buyer: Primary Market Statistics – A Decade of Bond Finance, 31 Dec 2020; SIFMA: US Municipal Issuance, 7 Jan 2020; Bloomberg, 2 Jan 2021
3 Thomson Reuters TM3 MMD Interactive Data, 31 Dec 2020
4 Nick Timiraos, “Fed Reinforces Plans to Provide Open-Ended Stimulus to Spur Recovery,” Wall Street Journal, 17 Dec 2020
5 Bloomberg Barclays, 31 Dec 2020
6 Thomson Reuters TM3 MMD Interactive Data, 31 Dec 2020.
7 The Bond Buyer: Secondary Market Data, 31 Dec 2020; SIFMA: US Municipal Trading, 4 Jan 2021
8 Anna Hirtenstein, “Stocks Climb, Extending Record-Setting Rally,” Wall Street Journal, 29 Dec 2020; Josh Mitchell, “U.S. Household Spending Drops for First Time in Seven Months,” Wall Street Journal, 23 Dec Nov 2020
9; Thomson Reuters TM3 MMD Interactive Data, 31 Dec 2020
10 Refinitiv Lipper, 4 Jan 2021
11 Bloomberg Barclays, 31 Dec 2020
12 Thomson Reuters TM3 MMD Interactive Data, 31 Dec 2020.
13 Peter DeGroot, Ye Tian, and Daniel Zheng, “2021 Municipal Market Outlook,” 24 Nov 2020; Vikram Rai, Jack Muller, and Vedanta Goenka, “2021 Municipal Market Outlook - Faith,” 9 Dec 2020; Bloomberg, 2 Jan 2021
14 NASBO, “The Fiscal Survey of States, an Update of State Fiscal Conditions,” Fall 2020
15 Erik Wasson, Laura Litvan, and Billy House, “Massive Package of Virus Relief, Federal Funding Passes Congress,” 21 Dec 2020

Related Funds

Disclosures

Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

A word about risk: Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Income from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax and may be subject to state and local taxes and at times the alternative minimum tax; a strategy concentrating in a single or limited number of states is subject to greater risk of adverse economic conditions and regulatory changes.

References to specific securities and their issuers are not intended and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase, sell or hold such securities. PIMCO products and strategies may or may not include the securities referenced and, if such securities are included, no representation is being made that such securities will continue to be included.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based on proprietary research and should not be interpreted as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation, nor as the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, and/or other costs. In addition, references to future results should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a client portfolio may achieve.

PIMCO and Gurtin do not provide legal or tax advice. Please consult your tax and/or legal counsel for specific tax or legal questions and concerns. The discussion herein is general in nature and is provided for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee as to its accuracy or completeness. Any tax statements contained herein are not intended or written to be used, and cannot be relied upon or used for the purpose of avoiding penalties imposed by the Internal Revenue Service or state and local tax authorities. Individuals should consult their own legal and tax counsel as to matters discussed herein and before entering into any estate planning, trust, investment, retirement, or insurance arrangement.

Bloomberg Barclays Municipal Bond Index consists of a broad selection of investment-grade general obligation and revenue bonds of maturities ranging from one year to 30 years. It is an unmanaged index representative of the tax-exempt bond market. The index is made up of all investment grade municipal bonds issued after 12/31/90 having a remaining maturity of at least one year. The Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index measures the non-investment grade and non-rated U.S. tax-exempt bond market. It is an unmanaged index made up of dollar-denominated, fixed-rate municipal securities that are rated Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below or non-rated and that meet specified maturity, liquidity, and quality requirements. The Barclays Taxable Municipal Index represents a rules-based, market-value weighted index engineered for the long-term taxable bond market. For inclusion in the Index, bonds must be rated investment grade quality or better, have at least one year to maturity, have a coupon that is fixed rate, have an outstanding par value of at least $7 million, and be issued as part of a transaction of at least $75 million. The Intermediate Municipal subsector groups together securities with an average maturity between one to 10 years. The Barclays 1-10 Year Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index considered to be generally representative of investment-grade municipal issues having remaining maturities from 1-10 years and a national scope. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. This market update was provided by Gurtin Municipal Bond Management, a PIMCO company (“Gurtin”). This material contains the current opinions of Gurtin and PIMCO. The commentary provided herein represents Gurtin’s assessment of the market environment at a specific time and the opinions and information stated and relied upon herein may become outdated, change, or otherwise be superseded at any time without notice. Certain information contained in this report is based upon third party sources, which Gurtin and PIMCO believe to be reliable, but are not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2021, PIMCO.

For institutional investor use only.

CMR2021-0107-1470730

Monthly Municipal Market Update, January 2021
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