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Tiffany Wilding

North American Economist

Ms. Wilding is a managing director and economist based in the Newport Beach office. She leads PIMCO’s Cyclical Forum, crafts the firm’s outlook for the global economy, and analyzes key macro risks for the firm’s Investment Committee. She also co-chairs the firm’s Americas portfolio committee. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, she was the head of global interest rate research at Tudor Investment, responsible for recommending trade ideas based on global macro trends. Previously, she was a U.S. interest rate strategist with Morgan Stanley and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she helped structure and implement the central bank’s response to the 2008 financial crisis. She has 15 years of investment and economics/financial markets experience and holds an MBA in quantitative finance from New York University's Stern School of Business. She received an undergraduate degree from Rhodes College.

Latest Insights

Reading the Road Ahead: Behind the Scenes at PIMCO’s Economic Forums
19 October 2021
Before Economic Forums were mainstream on Wall Street, our investment professionals were gathering to identify economic and market trends for our clients. Decades later, the cornerstone of our process is stronger and more important than ever.
Cyclical Outlook: Peak Policy, Peak Inflation, Peak Growth
30 June 2021
Learn key insights from our recent Cyclical Forum, including our outlook on policy, inflation and growth, and how investors can navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation and the Fed
18 July 2022
PIMCO Economists Allison Boxer and Tiffany Wilding discuss why slowing growth and rising inflation are both concerning and how restrictive we think monetary policy needs to be provide some relief.
Investing Amid Higher Volatility and Uncertainty
27 January 2022
Learn why we’re likely to see more volatility and uncertainty in 2022, the three important developments impacting the outlook and how investors can navigate the fast-moving cycle ahead.
2022 Outlook: Inflation in Context
28 January 2022
Get our view on why inflation remains persistently elevated, where we think it’s headed and why yield levels remain relatively low despite concerns about inflation risk.
Recession Watch: What to Expect and When
18 July 2022
Is the U.S. already in a recession? North American Economist Tiffany Wilding discusses the current debate, why we think we’re headed for a recession in the near term and how the Fed is likely to respond.
Economic and Market Commentary
Inflation Inflection
We expect growth and inflation to peak in 2021 in developed economies, and we are focused on liquidity and flexibility in our portfolios.
Economic and Market Commentary
Prevailing Under Pressure
With yields now higher, we believe bonds offer compelling value in this challenging macro environment.
Economic and Market Commentary
Investing in a Fast-Moving Cycle
A long-term approach can help investors position for opportunities in a volatile and rapidly advancing business cycle.
Lessons From the March 2020 Market Turmoil
Markets largely held up in last year’s liquidity crunch, but we believe policymakers should address a few soft spots.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Strained Markets, Strong Bonds
High quality fixed income investments can help center portfolios while offering attractive yield potential amid a likely recession in 2023.
The Great U.S. Inflation Head Fake
In this Q&A, we assess investors’ inflation concerns and outline reasons that near-term price adjustments are unlikely to lead to longer-term inflation.
Fed’s Latest Shift Still Consistent With Policy Framework
In this Q&A, we discuss how officials’ indications that interest rates may rise sooner than previously anticipated illustrate the Federal Reserve’s more adaptive response to inflation expectations.
Canada’s Economy: Macro Challenges, Market Opportunities
Cyclical and structural differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies suggest monetary policy may differ as well.
Energy Transition: A Jarring Path to Green
Higher energy prices may prompt more investment in energy transition technologies, but we expect periods of volatility and vulnerability along the path to a greener future.
Yield Curve Inversion: Markets Are Correct to Price In Higher Recession Risk
The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.
Inflation Risks Put the Fed in an Uncomfortable Place
The Federal Reserve navigated its tapering announcement without much market volatility, but faces the challenge of managing rate expectations amid elevated inflation risks.
October U.S. CPI Adds Pressure to Fed Policymaking
Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data in October may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider tapering faster and hiking sooner.
Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike – Compounding Investors’ Concerns on Inflation
A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.
A Narrowly Democratic Congress Could Boost Spending and Growth
With a narrowly Democratic Congress, U.S. fiscal spending is likely to increase on economic relief from the pandemic, infrastructure, and healthcare, boosting the economic rebound.
Avoiding Turbulence: Fed Policy and Communication in 2021
A clear communication strategy is crucial to managing market expectations around changes in Federal Reserve asset purchases and interest rate policy.
Fed Policy Amid Elevated Inflation Concerns
Elevated risks to inflation expectations appear to have prompted Federal Reserve officials to revise their policy rate hike projections higher.
Focusing on Inflation May Miss the Bigger Risk
The COVID-19 relief bill has spurred talk of inflation, but financial stability may be a more relevant risk.
Fed Policy: Patience Is a Virtue
The Federal Reserve’s communications following its March meeting should help anchor inflation expectations.
SLR Expiration: Treasury Markets Likely to Shoulder the Costs
The expiration of the temporary SLR changes should enhance the soundness of the banking system, but likely at the cost of Treasury market liquidity.
An Employment Priority: Women Reentering the Workforce Are Pivotal to U.S. Economic Recovery
One year since the inception of one of the most severe recessions in modern history, women’s engagement in the labor force is crucial to the economic recovery.
Substantial Further Progress? Not Yet, Says the Fed
The U.S. Fed stopped short of providing “advance notice,” but a December tapering announcement remains likely.
U.S. Inflation Data Appears Consistent With Faster Fed Tapering and Interest Rate Hikes
The risks of continued elevated inflation likely have the U.S. Federal Reserve considering material changes to its policy path.
Fed Focused on Getting Back Toward Neutral
The Federal Reserve pulls forward rate hike expectations and doubles the pace of tapering in an effort to provide more flexibility to react in 2022.
Realigning Inflation Expectations
To sustainably reach its inflation target, the Fed must raise inflation expectations – and that likely will require a period of above-target inflation.
Treasury Issuance Could Aid Adoption of SOFR Benchmark
As regulators push to transition away from Libor, sales of Treasuries linked to the successor rate could boost the new benchmark’s credibility and expand nascent markets for related debt and derivatives.
Bank of Canada: Walking a Tightrope
Amid a brightening economic outlook, the Bank of Canada could begin tapering its bond purchase program this month, though we think it’s a close call and believe a cautious approach is warranted.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Inflation Inflection
Economic growth and inflation will likely peak in 2021 and then moderate in 2022 as fiscal and monetary policy support recede.
June FOMC Meeting: Flexible Expectations Targeting
Buoyed by faster growth and higher inflation expectations, the Fed advances rate hikes to 2023 and broaches the topic of tapering.
A Swift Price-Level Adjustment, Not an Inflation Spiral: April U.S. CPI
We believe the U.S. is undergoing a large price-level adjustment, not shifting to a persistently higher inflation regime.
Short-Term Reference Rates at a Crossroads
Market participants have been hesitant to accept SOFR as the successor to Libor, but uniting around a single reference rate is increasingly important to keep benchmark markets from becoming fragmented.
U.S. Inflation Eased More Than Expected in November as Fed Eyes Pause in Rate-Hike Cycle Next Year
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
Fed Sets Up a Pause, Not a Pivot
The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.
What’s Behind the Slowdown in U.S. Inflation
Core inflation came in below expectations for October and should moderate in 2023, but likely with bumps in the road ahead.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Prevailing Under Pressure
The economic outlook remains challenging, but we believe higher yields contribute to a compelling case for bonds.
Surging September CPI Bolsters Case for Further Outsize Fed Hikes
Core inflation in the U.S. outpaced expectations for September and may fortify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve.
Hot August Inflation May Shift Fed’s Interest Rate Trajectory Higher
The Federal Reserve may be pressured to target a higher terminal fed funds rate as it seeks to tame U.S. inflation expectations following strong price rises in August.
With Aggressive Rate Forecasts, Fed Seeks to Reinforce Commitment to Taming Inflation
The Federal Reserve released new economic projections suggesting interest rate hikes will be faster and larger than previously forecast.
July U.S. CPI Offers Some Relief, But Fed Also Watches Other Inflation Indicators
Despite price declines in many sectors, the Federal Reserve may continue its hawkish approach.
Fed Affirms Hard-Line Approach to Taming Inflation
In Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials unequivocally emphasized their commitment to bringing inflation under control – even as the U.S. economy slows.
The Fed’s Road to Full Normalization
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
Cyclical Outlook Key Takeaways: Investing in a Fast-Moving Cycle
A long-term focus and a rigorous approach to portfolio construction may help investors navigate uncertainty as the mid-cycle expansion advances.
December CPI Data Suggests U.S. Inflation May Be Stabilizing, But Hasn’t Peaked Yet
The strong inflation report combined with employment data will likely prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking its policy rate in March.
Price Hikes in Retail Goods Spur U.S. Inflation – and the Fed Is Watching
U.S. inflation outpaced consensus estimates for January, likely complicating the policy path for the central bank.
Fed Aims for ‘Modestly Restrictive’ Policy to Counter Inflation
The Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to price stability, hiking its policy rate 75 basis points again and signaling more tightening to come.
Core Inflation Data Could Prompt Dramatic Action at the Fed
June’s U.S. inflation data will likely force central bankers into more restrictive territory – raising the odds of recession.
Disappointing Details in January CPI Report May Give the Fed Room to Maneuver
14 February 2023
U.S. inflation may not be moderating as quickly as many were expecting.
Data Alters Market's Expectations for Peak Policy Rate But Not Outlook for Fed Cuts
27 February 2023
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024
Fed Seeks to Balance Competing Risks
01 February 2023
Investors face mixed signals between the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and recent economic developments.
Bank Failures and the Fed
14 March 2023
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Economic and Market Commentary
Strained Markets, Strong Bonds
Resilient assets with attractive yields can help portfolios stay centered in 2023, when we expect inflation to moderate, central bank policy to steady, and a recession to take hold.
Fed Weighs Stubborn Inflation Against Banking System Stress
23 March 2023
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.