Ms. Wilding is a managing director and economist based in the Newport Beach office. She leads PIMCO’s Cyclical Forum, crafts the firm’s outlook for the global economy, and analyzes key macro risks for the firm’s Investment Committee. She also co-chairs the firm’s Americas portfolio committee. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, she was the head of global interest rate research at Tudor Investment, responsible for recommending trade ideas based on global macro trends. Previously, she was a U.S. interest rate strategist with Morgan Stanley and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she helped structure and implement the central bank’s response to the 2008 financial crisis. She has 16 years of investment and economics/financial markets experience and holds an MBA in quantitative finance from New York University's Stern School of Business. She received an undergraduate degree from Rhodes College.
Tighter financial conditions prompted Federal Reserve officials to take a step back from data dependence, and suggest a higher bar for future hikes.
Economic and Market Commentary
Our cyclical outlook: Markets appear priced for a benign economic outcome that would be a historical rarity given current conditions. Higher bond yields offer resilience amid increasing risks to the global economy.
The spike in bond yields presents an opportunity for fixed income investors to earn capital gains and diversify portfolios.
The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.
After stubborn U.S. inflation in the first half of 2023 kept the Federal Reserve raising rates, June’s softer inflation report suggests July may mark the end of the hiking cycle.
The Federal Reserve paused in June but raised its estimates for the policy rate later this year. We expect a July increase but remain skeptical about subsequent hikes.