Experts
Tiffany Wilding
North American Economist
Ms. Wilding is a managing director and economist based in the Newport Beach office. She leads PIMCO’s Cyclical Forum, crafts the firm’s outlook for the global economy, and analyzes key macro risks for the firm’s Investment Committee. She also co-chairs the firm’s Americas portfolio committee. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, she was the head of global interest rate research at Tudor Investment, responsible for recommending trade ideas based on global macro trends. Previously, she was a U.S. interest rate strategist with Morgan Stanley and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she helped structure and implement the central bank’s response to the 2008 financial crisis. She has 15 years of investment and economics/financial markets experience and holds an MBA in quantitative finance from New York University's Stern School of Business. She received an undergraduate degree from Rhodes College.
Latest Insights
Reading the Road Ahead: Behind the Scenes at PIMCO’s Economic Forums
19 October 2021
Before Economic Forums were mainstream on Wall Street, our investment professionals were gathering to identify economic and market trends for our clients. Decades later, the cornerstone of our process is stronger and more important than ever.
Cyclical Outlook: Peak Policy, Peak Inflation, Peak Growth
30 June 2021
Learn key insights from our recent Cyclical Forum, including our outlook on policy, inflation and growth, and how investors can navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation and the Fed
18 July 2022
PIMCO Economists Allison Boxer and Tiffany Wilding discuss why slowing growth and rising inflation are both concerning and how restrictive we think monetary policy needs to be provide some relief.
Investing Amid Higher Volatility and Uncertainty
27 January 2022
Learn why we’re likely to see more volatility and uncertainty in 2022, the three important developments impacting the outlook and how investors can navigate the fast-moving cycle ahead.
2022 Outlook: Inflation in Context
28 January 2022
Get our view on why inflation remains persistently elevated, where we think it’s headed and why yield levels remain relatively low despite concerns about inflation risk.
Recession Watch: What to Expect and When
18 July 2022
Is the U.S. already in a recession? North American Economist Tiffany Wilding discusses the current debate, why we think we’re headed for a recession in the near term and how the Fed is likely to respond.
Economic and Market Commentary
We expect growth and inflation to peak in 2021 in developed economies, and we are focused on liquidity and flexibility in our portfolios.
Economic and Market Commentary
With yields now higher, we believe bonds offer compelling value in this challenging macro environment.
Economic and Market Commentary
A long-term approach can help investors position for opportunities in a volatile and rapidly advancing business cycle.
Viewpoints
Markets largely held up in last year’s liquidity crunch, but we believe policymakers should address a few soft spots.
Blog
High quality fixed income investments can help center portfolios while offering attractive yield potential amid a likely recession in 2023.
Viewpoints
In this Q&A, we assess investors’ inflation concerns and outline reasons that near-term price adjustments are unlikely to lead to longer-term inflation.
Viewpoints
In this Q&A, we discuss how officials’ indications that interest rates may rise sooner than previously anticipated illustrate the Federal Reserve’s more adaptive response to inflation expectations.
Viewpoints
Cyclical and structural differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies suggest monetary policy may differ as well.
Viewpoints
Higher energy prices may prompt more investment in energy transition technologies, but we expect periods of volatility and vulnerability along the path to a greener future.
Blog
The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.
Blog
The Federal Reserve navigated its tapering announcement without much market volatility, but faces the challenge of managing rate expectations amid elevated inflation risks.
Blog
Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data in October may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider tapering faster and hiking sooner.
Blog
A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.
Blog
With a narrowly Democratic Congress, U.S. fiscal spending is likely to increase on economic relief from the pandemic, infrastructure, and healthcare, boosting the economic rebound.
Blog
A clear communication strategy is crucial to managing market expectations around changes in Federal Reserve asset purchases and interest rate policy.
Blog
Elevated risks to inflation expectations appear to have prompted Federal Reserve officials to revise their policy rate hike projections higher.
Blog
The COVID-19 relief bill has spurred talk of inflation, but financial stability may be a more relevant risk.
Blog
The Federal Reserve’s communications following its March meeting should help anchor inflation expectations.
Blog
The expiration of the temporary SLR changes should enhance the soundness of the banking system, but likely at the cost of Treasury market liquidity.
Blog
One year since the inception of one of the most severe recessions in modern history, women’s engagement in the labor force is crucial to the economic recovery.
Blog
The U.S. Fed stopped short of providing “advance notice,” but a December tapering announcement remains likely.
Blog
The risks of continued elevated inflation likely have the U.S. Federal Reserve considering material changes to its policy path.
Blog
The Federal Reserve pulls forward rate hike expectations and doubles the pace of tapering in an effort to provide more flexibility to react in 2022.
Blog
To sustainably reach its inflation target, the Fed must raise inflation expectations – and that likely will require a period of above-target inflation.
Blog
As regulators push to transition away from Libor, sales of Treasuries linked to the successor rate could boost the new benchmark’s credibility and expand nascent markets for related debt and derivatives.
Blog
Amid a brightening economic outlook, the Bank of Canada could begin tapering its bond purchase program this month, though we think it’s a close call and believe a cautious approach is warranted.
Blog
Economic growth and inflation will likely peak in 2021 and then moderate in 2022 as fiscal and monetary policy support recede.
Blog
Buoyed by faster growth and higher inflation expectations, the Fed advances rate hikes to 2023 and broaches the topic of tapering.
Blog
We believe the U.S. is undergoing a large price-level adjustment, not shifting to a persistently higher inflation regime.
Blog
Market participants have been hesitant to accept SOFR as the successor to Libor, but uniting around a single reference rate is increasingly important to keep benchmark markets from becoming fragmented.
Blog
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
Blog
The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.
Blog
Core inflation came in below expectations for October and should moderate in 2023, but likely with bumps in the road ahead.
Blog
The economic outlook remains challenging, but we believe higher yields contribute to a compelling case for bonds.
Blog
Core inflation in the U.S. outpaced expectations for September and may fortify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve.
Blog
The Federal Reserve may be pressured to target a higher terminal fed funds rate as it seeks to tame U.S. inflation expectations following strong price rises in August.
Blog
The Federal Reserve released new economic projections suggesting interest rate hikes will be faster and larger than previously forecast.
Blog
Despite price declines in many sectors, the Federal Reserve may continue its hawkish approach.
Blog
In Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials unequivocally emphasized their commitment to bringing inflation under control – even as the U.S. economy slows.
Blog
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
Blog
A long-term focus and a rigorous approach to portfolio construction may help investors navigate uncertainty as the mid-cycle expansion advances.
Blog
The strong inflation report combined with employment data will likely prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking its policy rate in March.
Blog
U.S. inflation outpaced consensus estimates for January, likely complicating the policy path for the central bank.
Blog
The Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to price stability, hiking its policy rate 75 basis points again and signaling more tightening to come.
Blog
June’s U.S. inflation data will likely force central bankers into more restrictive territory – raising the odds of recession.
Blog
14 February 2023
U.S. inflation may not be moderating as quickly as many were expecting.
Blog
27 February 2023
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024
Blog
01 February 2023
Investors face mixed signals between the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and recent economic developments.
Blog
14 March 2023
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Economic and Market Commentary
Resilient assets with attractive yields can help portfolios stay centered in 2023, when we expect inflation to moderate, central bank policy to steady, and a recession to take hold.
Blog
23 March 2023
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.