Experts
Tiffany Wilding
Economist
Ms. Wilding is a managing director and economist based in the Newport Beach office. She leads PIMCO’s Cyclical Forum, crafts the firm’s outlook for the global economy, and analyzes key macro risks for the firm’s Investment Committee. She also co-chairs the firm’s Americas portfolio committee. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, she was the head of global interest rate research at Tudor Investment, responsible for recommending trade ideas based on global macro trends. Previously, she was a U.S. interest rate strategist with Morgan Stanley and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where she helped structure and implement the central bank’s response to the 2008 financial crisis. She has 15 years of investment and economics/financial markets experience and holds an MBA in quantitative finance from New York University's Stern School of Business. She received an undergraduate degree from Rhodes College.
Latest Insights
Blog
03 May 2023
Tighter credit conditions pose increasing risks to economic activity, leading the U.S. Federal Reserve to signal a likely pause.
Viewpoints
27 April 2023
Debt ceiling concerns are rippling through financial markets. We discuss the potential risks and opportunities for investors.
Economic and Market Commentary
20 April 2023
Watch PIMCO experts discuss the three macro themes investors should watch for throughout the rest of 2023.
Blog
12 April 2023
March inflation data may put the Federal Reserve close to its terminal policy rate this cycle, if it hasn’t already reached it.
Economic and Market Commentary
05 April 2023
Studying over 70 years of data lead us to believe that a recession may be imminent. Watch PIMCO Economist Tiffany Wilding discuss the economic implications of rising interest rates, and why investors may do well to stay invested in bonds.
Economic and Market Commentary
04 April 2023
The effects of tighter financial conditions are becoming apparent, bringing forward the risk of recession while suggesting a supportive backdrop for bonds.
Video
04 April 2023
Group CIO Dan Ivascyn discusses where we’re seizing opportunity now and where we’re exercising patience.
Video
04 April 2023
Economic and market stresses raise the risk of a recession. Fixed income can offer the potential for attractive yield and stability amid the uncertainty.
Section 1: The Economic Backdrop
Section 2: Investment Implications
Blog
04 April 2023
Economic and market stresses raise the risk of a recession. Fixed income can offer the potential for attractive yield and stability amid the uncertainty.
Blog
23 March 2023
Slower credit growth may curtail broader U.S. economic growth, taking pressure off the Federal Reserve.
Blog
14 March 2023
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank raises questions for Fed policy and economic growth.
Blog
27 February 2023
Strength in employment and inflation has caused markets to raise the implied terminal rate while still expecting the Fed to normalize policy – which is different from easing – in 2024
Blog
14 February 2023
U.S. inflation may not be moderating as quickly as many were expecting.
Blog
01 February 2023
Investors face mixed signals between the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and recent economic developments.
Economic and Market Commentary
11 January 2023
Resilient assets with attractive yields can help portfolios stay centered in 2023, when we expect inflation to moderate, central bank policy to steady, and a recession to take hold.
Blog
11 January 2023
High quality fixed income investments can help center portfolios while offering attractive yield potential amid a likely recession in 2023.
Blog
13 December 2022
Falling prices for cars and holiday discounting contributed to softer U.S. inflation, creating more room for the Fed to potentially dial back its hawkish stance.
Blog
10 November 2022
Core inflation came in below expectations for October and should moderate in 2023, but likely with bumps in the road ahead.
Blog
03 November 2022
The Federal Reserve’s November statement included dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation.
Viewpoints
19 October 2022
Cyclical and structural differences between the Canadian and U.S. economies suggest monetary policy may differ as well.
Blog
13 October 2022
Core inflation in the U.S. outpaced expectations for September and may fortify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish resolve.
Economic and Market Commentary
04 October 2022
With yields now higher, we believe bonds offer compelling value in this challenging macro environment.
Blog
04 October 2022
The economic outlook remains challenging, but we believe higher yields contribute to a compelling case for bonds.
Blog
22 September 2022
The Federal Reserve released new economic projections suggesting interest rate hikes will be faster and larger than previously forecast.
Blog
13 September 2022
The Federal Reserve may be pressured to target a higher terminal fed funds rate as it seeks to tame U.S. inflation expectations following strong price rises in August.
Blog
29 August 2022
In Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve officials unequivocally emphasized their commitment to bringing inflation under control – even as the U.S. economy slows.
Blog
10 August 2022
Despite price declines in many sectors, the Federal Reserve may continue its hawkish approach.
Blog
28 July 2022
The Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to price stability, hiking its policy rate 75 basis points again and signaling more tightening to come.
Recession Watch: What to Expect and When
18 July 2022
Is the U.S. already in a recession? North American Economist Tiffany Wilding discusses the current debate, why we think we’re headed for a recession in the near term and how the Fed is likely to respond.
Slowing Growth, Rising Inflation and the Fed
18 July 2022
PIMCO Economists Allison Boxer and Tiffany Wilding discuss why slowing growth and rising inflation are both concerning and how restrictive we think monetary policy needs to be provide some relief.
Blog
13 July 2022
June’s U.S. inflation data will likely force central bankers into more restrictive territory – raising the odds of recession.
Viewpoints
23 February 2022
Higher energy prices may prompt more investment in energy transition technologies, but we expect periods of volatility and vulnerability along the path to a greener future.
Blog
10 February 2022
U.S. inflation outpaced consensus estimates for January, likely complicating the policy path for the central bank.
2022 Outlook: Inflation in Context
28 January 2022
Get our view on why inflation remains persistently elevated, where we think it’s headed and why yield levels remain relatively low despite concerns about inflation risk.
Investing Amid Higher Volatility and Uncertainty
27 January 2022
Learn why we’re likely to see more volatility and uncertainty in 2022, the three important developments impacting the outlook and how investors can navigate the fast-moving cycle ahead.
Blog
27 January 2022
At the January 2022 meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled an accelerated timetable to normalize policy, but it will be a long process amid an uncertain environment.
Blog
13 January 2022
The strong inflation report combined with employment data will likely prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin hiking its policy rate in March.
Economic and Market Commentary
11 January 2022
A long-term approach can help investors position for opportunities in a volatile and rapidly advancing business cycle.
Blog
11 January 2022
A long-term focus and a rigorous approach to portfolio construction may help investors navigate uncertainty as the mid-cycle expansion advances.
Blog
15 December 2021
The Federal Reserve pulls forward rate hike expectations and doubles the pace of tapering in an effort to provide more flexibility to react in 2022.
Blog
10 December 2021
The risks of continued elevated inflation likely have the U.S. Federal Reserve considering material changes to its policy path.
Blog
10 November 2021
Stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data in October may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider tapering faster and hiking sooner.
Blog
03 November 2021
The Federal Reserve navigated its tapering announcement without much market volatility, but faces the challenge of managing rate expectations amid elevated inflation risks.
Reading the Road Ahead: Behind the Scenes at PIMCO’s Economic Forums
19 October 2021
Before Economic Forums were mainstream on Wall Street, our investment professionals were gathering to identify economic and market trends for our clients. Decades later, the cornerstone of our process is stronger and more important than ever.
Blog
22 September 2021
Elevated risks to inflation expectations appear to have prompted Federal Reserve officials to revise their policy rate hike projections higher.
Blog
28 July 2021
The U.S. Fed stopped short of providing “advance notice,” but a December tapering announcement remains likely.
Viewpoints
01 July 2021
In this Q&A, we discuss how officials’ indications that interest rates may rise sooner than previously anticipated illustrate the Federal Reserve’s more adaptive response to inflation expectations.
Cyclical Outlook: Peak Policy, Peak Inflation, Peak Growth
30 June 2021
Learn key insights from our recent Cyclical Forum, including our outlook on policy, inflation and growth, and how investors can navigate the challenges and opportunities ahead.
Economic and Market Commentary
23 June 2021
We expect growth and inflation to peak in 2021 in developed economies, and we are focused on liquidity and flexibility in our portfolios.
Blog
23 June 2021
Economic growth and inflation will likely peak in 2021 and then moderate in 2022 as fiscal and monetary policy support recede.
Blog
16 June 2021
Buoyed by faster growth and higher inflation expectations, the Fed advances rate hikes to 2023 and broaches the topic of tapering.
Blog
18 May 2021
Market participants have been hesitant to accept SOFR as the successor to Libor, but uniting around a single reference rate is increasingly important to keep benchmark markets from becoming fragmented.
Blog
12 May 2021
We believe the U.S. is undergoing a large price-level adjustment, not shifting to a persistently higher inflation regime.
Blog
29 April 2021
As regulators push to transition away from Libor, sales of Treasuries linked to the successor rate could boost the new benchmark’s credibility and expand nascent markets for related debt and derivatives.
Blog
28 April 2021
To sustainably reach its inflation target, the Fed must raise inflation expectations – and that likely will require a period of above-target inflation.
Viewpoints
21 April 2021
In this Q&A, we assess investors’ inflation concerns and outline reasons that near-term price adjustments are unlikely to lead to longer-term inflation.
Blog
16 April 2021
Amid a brightening economic outlook, the Bank of Canada could begin tapering its bond purchase program this month, though we think it’s a close call and believe a cautious approach is warranted.
Blog
22 March 2021
The expiration of the temporary SLR changes should enhance the soundness of the banking system, but likely at the cost of Treasury market liquidity.
Blog
18 March 2021
The Federal Reserve’s communications following its March meeting should help anchor inflation expectations.
Blog
09 March 2021
The COVID-19 relief bill has spurred talk of inflation, but financial stability may be a more relevant risk.
Blog
05 March 2021
One year since the inception of one of the most severe recessions in modern history, women’s engagement in the labor force is crucial to the economic recovery.
Blog
24 February 2021
A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.
Viewpoints
11 February 2021
Markets largely held up in last year’s liquidity crunch, but we believe policymakers should address a few soft spots.
Blog
27 January 2021
A clear communication strategy is crucial to managing market expectations around changes in Federal Reserve asset purchases and interest rate policy.
Blog
08 January 2021
With a narrowly Democratic Congress, U.S. fiscal spending is likely to increase on economic relief from the pandemic, infrastructure, and healthcare, boosting the economic rebound.
Blog
16 August 2019
The risk of recession has risen, but it’s not a foregone conclusion.