Technological transformation is lifting global activity despite elevated U.S. tariffs and persistent policy uncertainty. Here are five charts that help illustrate this crucial macroeconomic trend.
Similar to the surprisingly resilient pace of U.S. economic growth in 2025 – which we discussed in Macro Signposts earlier this month – global trade and industrial production have also remained robust this year. These are unexpected trends given the significant policy uncertainty and what amounts to the largest tariff hike by a developed market country in a century.
Global industrial production and trade accelerated in early 2025 in anticipation of U.S. tariffs, which many producers believed would be a key feature of the Trump administration’s economic policy – so they front-loaded activity to build inventories in the U.S. Now, several quarters into the new U.S. trade regime, one might expect the front-loading of industrial production would by now be giving way to weakness (see Figure 1). So why isn’t it?
Figure 1: Tariff-related front-loading in global industrial production has not yet given way to meaningful weakness
Figure 2: Tariff-related momentum in global industrial production by product category
Figure 3: Tariff-related momentum in global industrial production by region
Figure 4: Countries in Asia ex China lead production of computers and related equipment
Figure 5: U.S. industrial production of business equipment vs. NIPA reported private fixed investment
