Viewpoints

EM Outlook: Is The Time Right For Investors?

2022’s emerging markets debt outflows, the worst ever, have pushed valuations to historically inexpensive levels. What does this mean for investors going forward?

More from this section

Read Transcript

Text on screen: PIMCO

Text on screen: PIMCO provides services only to qualified institutions and investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized.

Text on screen: Pramol Dhawan, Head of Emerging Markets Portfolio Management

Dhawan: This year has been the worst outflow episode in the history of emerging markets debt, and as a result, valuations look historically cheap. So is now the right time to jump into EM?

FULL PAGE GRAPHIC: TITLE – EM outlook through the three lens approach: The graphics shows three circles that from left to right read: Valuations: Attractive, Technicals: Challenged, Fundamentals: Sound

We look at EM investment through three lenses: valuations, technicals, and fundamentals. From the valuation side, they look undeniably attractive.

EM has suffered disproportionately through tightening of financial conditions and hiking of interest rates globally.

So from a valuation side, when we compare it and contrast it to U.S. corporate credit, we think emerging markets looks attractive indeed. But from a technical perspective, we have to look to see when the worst of the financial conditions tightening is behind us. At that point, we think EM may be poised to rally.

But it’s also at that point where the fundamentals can become more important. We want to try and bifurcate between the winners and the losers within the asset class at that point in time, because those country specific risks can manifest very quickly and very unexpectedly.

Text on screen: Wait for clarity before pivoting to an outright bullish stance

Images on screen: Emerging market countries, shipping

So in summary, we prefer to be cautious and wait for more clarity before pivoting towards a more outright bullish stance.

We expect the growth in emerging market assets to continue, as the number of countries and companies issuing debt is set to increase. Local markets in particular are where we have seen the strongest growth, which we see as a positive sign, as they generally offer higher diversification benefits and can also immunize the issuer from the stresses that come from a stronger dollar and higher U.S. rates environment.

Text on screen: TITLE – Two areas we’re watching: BULLETS – Development of corporate issuance in local currency, Less liquid private credit issuance

Two areas that we are watching carefully are the development of corporate issuance in local currency and less liquid private credit issuance. Local corporates do not formally have a benchmark as of yet and consequently are not widely allocated to, but the area is growing fast.

Less liquid EM credit offers investors the ability to harvest higher yields and liquidity premiums that are still quite rare, at least relative to the U.S. and the European Union, where private credit industries have matured over the past decade.

Text on screen: TITLE – Key takeaways for EM investors: BULLETS – EM should form a structural part of your portfolio, EM can provide both yield and diversification benefits, Tread carefully in the asset class – especially in higher yielding names, Need for active risk management in EM

The main takeaways for investors are that EM should form a structural part of your asset allocation decision. It’s too big an opportunity set to ignore and to think of from a tactical perspective. And in fact, it’s one of those rare opportunities that offers both yield and diversification benefits.

We think investors should tread carefully in the asset class, especially in those higher yielding names, but not to avoid that part of the asset class completely. There will be invariably winners and losers in this asset class, and I think that that underscores the need for active risk management and analysis.

Text on screen: For more insights and information, visit pimco.com

Text on screen: PIMCO

Disclosure


Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Private credit involves an investment in non-publically traded securities which may be subject to illiquidity risk.  Portfolios that invest in private credit may be leveraged and may engage in speculative investment practices that increase the risk of investment loss. Diversification does not ensure against loss.

Asset allocation is the process of distributing investments among various classes of investments (e.g., stocks and bonds). It does not guarantee future results, ensure a profit or protect against loss.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

The terms “cheap” and “rich” as used herein generally refer to a security or asset class that is deemed to be substantially under- or overpriced compared to both its historical average as well as to the investment manager’s future expectations. There is no guarantee of future results or that a security’s valuation will ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. | Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660 is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. | PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) in the UK. The services provided by PIMCO Europe Ltd are not available to retail investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser. | PIMCO Europe GmbH (Company No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Germany), PIMCO Europe GmbH Italian Branch (Company No. 10005170963), PIMCO Europe GmbH Irish Branch  (Company No. 909462), PIMCO Europe GmbH UK Branch (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe GmbH Spanish Branch (N.I.F. W2765338E) are authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) (Marie- Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) in Germany in accordance with Section 15 of the German Securities Institutions Act (WpIG).  The Italian Branch, Irish Branch, UK Branch and Spanish Branch are additionally supervised by: (1) Italian Branch: the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act; (2) Irish Branch: the Central Bank of Ireland in accordance with Regulation 43 of the European Union (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2017, as amended; (3) UK Branch: the Financial Conduct Authority; and (4) Spanish Branch: the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) in accordance with obligations stipulated in articles 168 and  203  to 224, as well as obligations contained in Tile V, Section I of the Law on the Securities Market (LSM) and in articles 111, 114 and 117 of Royal Decree 217/2008, respectively. The services provided by PIMCO Europe GmbH are available only to professional clients as defined in Section 67 para. 2 German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). They are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication.| PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registered in Switzerland, Company No. CH-020.4.038.582-2). The services provided by PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH are not available to retail investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser. | PIMCO Asia Pte Ltd (Registration No. 199804652K) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore as a holder of a capital markets services licence and an exempt financial adviser. The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Asia Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission for Types 1, 4 and 9 regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. PIMCO Asia Limited is registered as a cross-border discretionary investment manager with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Korea (Registration No. 08-02-307). The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Investment Management (Shanghai) Limited Unit 3638-39, Phase II Shanghai IFC, 8 Century Avenue, Pilot Free Trade Zone, Shanghai, 200120, China (Unified social credit code: 91310115MA1K41MU72) is registered with Asset Management Association of China as Private Fund Manager (Registration No. P1071502, Type: Other) | PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508, AFSL 246862. This publication has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of investors. Before making an investment decision, investors should obtain professional advice and consider whether the information contained herein is appropriate having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. | PIMCO Japan Ltd, Financial Instruments Business Registration Number is Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 382. PIMCO Japan Ltd is a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. All investments contain risk. There is no guarantee that the principal amount of the investment will be preserved, or that a certain return will be realized; the investment could suffer a loss. All profits and losses incur to the investor. The amounts, maximum amounts and calculation methodologies of each type of fee and expense and their total amounts will vary depending on the investment strategy, the status of investment performance, period of management and outstanding balance of assets and thus such fees and expenses cannot be set forth herein. | PIMCO Taiwan Limited is managed and operated independently. The reference number of business license of the company approved by the competent authority is (110) Jin Guan Tou Gu Xin Zi No. 020. 40F., No.68, Sec. 5, Zhongxiao E. Rd., Xinyi Dist., Taipei City 110, Taiwan (R.O.C.). Tel: +886 2 8729-5500. | PIMCO Canada Corp. (199 Bay Street, Suite 2050, Commerce Court Station, P.O. Box 363, Toronto, ON, M5L 1G2) services and products may only be available in certain provinces or territories of Canada and only through dealers authorized for that purpose. | PIMCO Latin America Av. Brigadeiro Faria Lima 3477, Torre A, 5° andar São Paulo, Brazil 04538-133. | No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. ©2022 PIMCO.

CMR2022-0818-2387949

 

 

Filters: Reset All

Filters

Close Filters Dropdown
  • Tags

    Reset

    Close
  • Category

    Reset

    Bond by Bond
    Careers
    Economic and Market Commentary
    Investment Strategies
    PIMCO Foundation
    PIMCO Education
    View from the Investment Committee
    View From the Trade Floor
    Viewpoints
    Education
    Close
  • Order By

    Reset

    Alphabetical
    Most Recent
    Close
() filters applied

Multimedia Finder

Filter By:
  • Bond by Bond
  • Careers
  • Economic and Market Commentary
  • Investment Strategies
  • PIMCO Foundation
  • PIMCO Education
  • View from the Investment Committee
  • View From the Trade Floor
  • Viewpoints
  • Understanding Investing
  • A
  • B
  • C
  • D
  • E
  • F
  • G
  • H
  • I
  • K
  • M
  • N
  • P
  • Q
  • R
  • S
  • T
  • W
  • Z
Clear
Berdibek Ahmedov
Product Strategist, Equities and Multi-Asset
Del Anderson
Credit Analyst
Joshua Anderson
Portfolio Manager, Income and Asset-Backed Securities
Robert Arnott
Founder and Chairman, Research Affiliates
Andrew Balls
CIO Global Fixed Income
Rachel Betton
Justin Blesy
Asset Allocation Strategist
Meredith Block
ESG Research Analyst
Allison Boxer
Economist
David L. Braun
Portfolio Manager
Jelle Brons
Portfolio Manager, Global and U.S. Investment Grade Credit
Nathaniel Brown
Director of the PIMCO Foundation
Erin Browne
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Asset Strategies
Esteban Burbano
Fixed Income Strategist
Grover Burthey
Portfolio Manager, ESG
Libby Cantrill
U.S. Public Policy
John R. Cavalieri
Kenneth Chambers
Fixed Income Strategist
Stephen Chang
Portfolio Manager, Asia
Devin Chen
Portfolio Manager, Commercial Real Estate
Richard Clarida
Global Economic Advisor
Mathieu Clavel
Portfolio Manager, Alternative Credit
Tony Crescenzi
Portfolio Manager, Market Strategist
Josh Davis
Global Head of Risk Management
Pramol Dhawan
Portfolio Manager
Matt Dorsten
Portfolio Manager, Quantitative Strategy
Devin Ekberg
Senior Consultant, Advisor Education
David Fisher
Co-Head of Strategic Accounts, U.S. Global Wealth Management
David Forgash
Portfolio Manager
Preeyam Gandhi
Strategist
Max Gelb
Product Strategist
Nick Granger
Portfolio Manager, Quantitative Analytics
Adam Gubner
Portfolio Manager, Distressed Debt
Bill Gurtin
Gregory Hall
Head of U.S. Global Wealth Management
David Hammer
Portfolio Manager
Mary Hoppe
Account Manager
Ray Huang
Portfolio Manager, Real Estate
Daniel H. Hyman
Portfolio Manager
Daniel J. Ivascyn
Group Chief Investment Officer
Henry Kao
Account Manager, Stable Value
Mark R. Kiesel
CIO Global Credit
Erica Kinsella
Product Strategist, ESG Strategies
Sean Klein
Head of Client Business Strategy – Client Solutions and Analytics
Kristofer Kraus
Portfolio Manager
Brian Kyle
Global Wealth Management
Raji O. Manasseh
Equity Strategist
Jason Mandinach
Head of Alternative Credit and Private Strategies
Samuel Mary
ESG Research Analyst
Kyle McCarthy
Alternative Credit Strategist
Vidur Mehra
Mohit Mittal
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Sector
Alfred T. Murata
Portfolio Manager, Mortgage Credit
John Murray
Portfolio Manager, Global Private Real Estate
John Nersesian
Head of Advisor Education
Roger Nieves
Rick Pagnani
Head of Insurance-Linked Securities
Sonali Pier
Portfolio Manager, Multi-Sector Credit
Christina Pihos
Defined Contribution Marketing
Steven Pogorelec
Global Wealth Management
Gavin Power
Chief of Sustainable Development and International Affairs
Chitrang K. Purani
William Quinones
Product Strategist
Lupin Rahman
Portfolio Manager
Graham A. Rennison
Quantitative Portfolio Manager
Libby Rodney
Steve A. Rodosky
Portfolio Manager
Emmanuel Roman
Chief Executive Officer
Steve Sapra
Senior Advisor
Jerome M. Schneider
Portfolio Manager
Marc P. Seidner
CIO Non-traditional Strategies
Emmanuel S. Sharef
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation and Multi Real Asset
Greg E. Sharenow
Portfolio Manager, Commodities and Real Assets
Candice Stack
Head of Client Management, Americas
Kimberley Stafford
Global Head of Product Strategy; Responsible for Sustainability Oversight
Cathy Stahl
Global Head of Marketing
Jason R. Steiner
Portfolio Manager, Private Lending and Opportunistic Strategies
Christian Stracke
President, Global Head of Credit Research
Geraldine Sundstrom
Portfolio Manager, Asset Allocation, EMEA
Richard Thaler
Distinguished Service Professor of Economics and Behavioral Science at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business
Mark Thomas
Account Manager, Global Wealth Management
Jessica K. Tom
Senior Credit Analyst
François Trausch
CEO and CIO of PIMCO Prime Real Estate
D. Alan Trice
Jerry Tsai
Client Solutions and Analytics
Matt Tuten
Portfolio Manager
Megan Walters
PIMCO Prime Real Estate
Qi Wang
CIO Portfolio Implementation
Jamie Weinstein
Portfolio Manager, Corporate Special Situations
Paul-James White
Portfolio Manager
Tiffany Wilding
Economist
Andrew T. Wittkop
Portfolio Manager, Treasuries, Agencies, Rates
Jerry Woytash
Portfolio Manager, Short-Term Desk
Kirill Zavodov
Portfolio Manager
Mike Cudzil
Portfolio Manager
Chris Brightman
Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Research Affiliates
PIMCO
Ben Bernanke
Chair, Global Advisory Board
Seray Incoglu
Portfolio Manager, Commercial Real Estate
  • Alphabetical
  • Most Recent
Section : Date : Experts :
Reset All
Decoding Quant Strategies
Capitalizing on Change in the Real Estate Market (Video)
Viewpoints

Capitalizing on Change in the Real Estate Market(video)

Capitalizing on Change in the Real Estate Market

Discover potential opportunities in the real estate market from a panel discussion at our recent Alternatives Investor Conference.

Navigating Uncertainty with Alternative Investments

Unlocking the Power of Alternative Investments

Adapting to the Evolving Credit Landscape

Decoding Quant Strategies

Adapting to the Evolving Credit Landscape (Video)
Viewpoints

Adapting to the Evolving Credit Landscape(video)

Adapting to the Evolving Credit Landscape

Learn how to navigate the shifting dynamics in banking and private credit from a panel discussion at our recent Alternatives Investor Conference.

Navigating Uncertainty with Alternative Investments

Unlocking the Power of Alternative Investments

Capitalizing on Change in the Real Estate Market

Decoding Quant Strategies

Unlocking the Power of Alternative Investments
Navigating Uncertainty with Alternative Investments
The Cost of Cash: Talking to Clients about their Cash Allocations
Viewpoints

The Cost of Cash: Talking to Clients about their Cash Allocations(video)

The Cost of Cash: Talking to Clients about their Cash Allocations

Investors often keep cash in their portfolios for liquidity needs and defensive reasons, and cash balances are currently at record high levels. Help investors overcome concerns about putting cash to work and how best to position cash allocations in this environment to maximize potential. Watch now to learn why the time is right to consider moving cash off the sidelines into fixed income.

To learn more, contact your PIMCO Account Manager.

Load more results Load {{cCtrl.fetchResults}} more results