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Advisor Playbook

Markets are complex. Give your clients clarity. Enhance your client conversations with our quarterly look at key market trends, reinforced with education and backed by the expertise of PIMCO.

Long Yields Are at Multi-Decade Highs as Markets Price More Fed Hikes

What it Means for Investors:

Long yields are sitting at levels not seen in nearly 20 years, marking an attractive entry point for fixed income investors, but it’s important to be mindful of risks and volatility.

U.S 10-Year and 30-Year Yields sit at levels not seen in almost 20 years

As of 30 September 2026. Source: PIMCO, Bloomberg.

Yields Across Most Fixed Income Sectors Are High vs. Recent History

What it Means for Investors:

Yields are still near decade highs across most fixed income sectors, which creates the foundation for an attractive outlook across a wide variety of bonds.

Today yields are at a much stronger starting point when compared to Q4 2021

As of 30 September 2026. Source: Bloomberg, PIMCO. Index proxies for asset classes displayed are as follows: Cash: FTSE 3 Month Treasury Bill Index, Agency MBS: Bloomberg MBS Fixed Rate Index, Munis: Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index, HY Munis: Bloomberg HY Muni Bond Index, Core: Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index, Global Core: Bloomberg Global Aggregate ex-US Index (USD Hedged), HY Credit: Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index, EM: JPMorgan EMBI Global, IG Credit: Bloomberg US Credit Index; Private Credit: Market estimates for yield; Asset Based Finance: Yield is based on the average unlevered loan yields as observed by PIMCO.

* Securitized Credit computed as average of CLOs, CMBS, and ABS from JPMorgan and Bloomberg.

** Municipal yields are the taxable equivalent yield, adjusted by the highest marginal tax rate (40.8%). Unadjusted IG Muni index yield is 4.7% with a change of 364bps compared to 12/31/2021 levels, the unadjusted HY Muni Index yield is 6.3% with a change of 359bps compared to 12/31/2021 levels. 

1 The yield to worst is the yield resulting from the most adverse set of circumstances from the investor’s point of view; the lowest of all possible yields.

Investing at the Right Time May Not Always Feel Like It

What it Means for Investors:

In October 2023, investors focused on bonds’ disappointing past returns and pulled their money out despite yields becoming more attractive. In doing so, they missed an attractive entry point and the strong returns that followed.

As of 30 September 2026. Source: PIMCO, Bloomberg, Morningstar. Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results.

Yield is BBG U.S. Aggregate Index yield to worst. Returns at the yield peak are BBG U.S. Aggregate Index total returns for the 12 months before and after 19 October 2023. Flows are for the Intermediate Core Bond and US Fund Intermediate Core-Plus Bond Morningstar categories. Yield to Worst (YTW) is the estimated lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting.

Elevated Cash Balances: Bonds Now Offer a Meaningful Yield Pickup over Cash

What it Means for Investors:

Money market balances continue to rise despite many fixed income categories offering higher yields, which may sacrifice additional income and return potential. An advisor can help you weigh the opportunity against your spending needs and risk tolerance.

Left: Money Market Fund AUM ($ trillions), Right: Starting Yields: Cash vs. Bond Categories (munis at 40.8% tax-equivalent yield)

Unlike cash, investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed.

LHS: As of December 2025. Source: PIMCO, Bloomberg. RHS: As of 30 September 2026. Municipal yields are the taxable equivalent yield, adjusted by the highest marginal tax rate (40.8%). Yield for each category is provided by Morningstar as of the month-end stated. The category yield provided by Morningstar has up to a 15-day lag, for days in which the yield is not available we adjust by the month-over-month change for the benchmark for each category. Source: PIMCO. Past performance is not a guarantee nor a reliable indicator of future performance. Asset classes displayed are represented by the following Morningstar Categories and indices: Cash: FTSE 3 Month Treasury Bill Index; Short-Term: Morningstar Short-Term Bond Category; Long Muni: Morningstar Muni National Long Category; Global USD-H: Morningstar Global Bond USD Hedged Category; Corporate Bond: Morningstar Corporate Bond Category; Core-Plus: Morningstar Intermediate Core-Plus Bond Category; HY Muni: Morningstar High Yield Muni Category; Multisector: Morningstar Multisector Bond Category; High Yield: Morningstar High Yield Bond Category; EM: Morningstar Emerging Markets Bond Category. *Base yield is shown as the lower of the index’s yield and the yield of cash as of the given date for visual purposes. Excess yield is the difference between the cash yield at the given date and the index yield at that same date.

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