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Advisor Playbook

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As Short-Term Rates Have Fallen, Cash Offers a Less Compelling Starting Yield

What it Means for Investors:

Compared to cash, many areas of the bond market represented by their Morningstar categories on the right, offer excess yields of as much as 4.05%. Given these attractive starting yields, investors with elevated cash allocations should consider the return potential of other fixed income allocations going forward.

Yield Comparison – Cash vs. Morningstar Categories

Unlike cash, investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed.

As of 31 May 2026. Source: PIMCO. Past performance is not a guarantee nor a reliable indicator of future performance. 

Asset classes displayed are represented by the following Morningstar Categories and indices as follows: Cash: FTSE 3 Month Treasury Bill Index, Short-Term: Morningstar Short-Term Bond Category; Long Muni: Morningstar Muni National Long Category; Global USD-H: Morningstar Global Bond USD Hedged Category; Corporate Bond: Morningstar Corporate Bond Category; Core-Plus: Morningstar Intermediate Core-Plus Bond Category; HY Muni: Morningstar High Yield Muni Category; Multisector: Morningstar Multisector Bond Category; High Yield: Morningstar High Yield Bond Category; EM: Morningstar Emerging Markets Bond Category. *Base yield is shown as the lower of the index’s yield, and the yield of cash as of the given date for visual purposes. Excess yield is the difference between the cash yield at the given date and the index yield at that same date.

Starting Yields Have Historically Been a Strong Indicator of Long-Term Returns

What it Means for Investors:

Despite the potential for near-term volatility, history suggests that when starting yields have been in the 4% to 5% range, as they are today, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index has experienced positive returns 100% of the time over investment horizons of three, five and ten years.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Return Distribution when starting yields are between 4-5%

As of 30 June 2026. Source: Bloomberg, PIMCO. Past performance is not a guarantee nor a reliable indicator of future performance.

Yield and return are shown for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index since its inception.

In a Variety of Rate Environments, Bonds Have Historically Outperformed Cash

What it Means for Investors:

Whether the Fed hikes, cuts, or holds, history shows that fixed income has outperformed cash across a variety of interest-rate environments. In 1995, when rates were higher for longer, higher starting yields delivered as much as 10.2%, nearly double the return of cash over the same period.

Historical cutting cycles (Left). Fixed income performance relative to cash (Right)

As of 30 June 2026. Source: Bloomberg, PIMCO. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.

We select three historical case studies to illustrate three very different outcomes for the path of the Fed Funds rate after rates hit their peak level in each cycle. Cutting cycles start: 30 September 1984, 30 June 1995, and 30 September 2007. The starting Fed Funds rate for each cycle was: 6.0% (June 1995); 11.3% (September 1984); 4.9% (September 2007); 5.3% (August 2024).

*The 1984 cycle is shown on the secondary axis (LHS) to show proportionate yield moves given the significantly higher starting rates versus other cycles.

Cash: FTSE 3-Month Treasury Bill Index; Short-Term: Morningstar Short-Term Bond Category; IG Muni: Morningstar Municipal National Long Category; Core Plus: Morningstar Intermediate Core-Plus Category; Multisector: Morningstar Multisector Bond Category.

Expanding into a Global Opportunity Set May Improve Diversification and Return Potential

What it Means for Investors:

With 60% of the global bond market outside of the U.S., investors can access a broader range of opportunities by expanding globally. Historically, global diversification has enhanced returns relative to more concentrated approaches and reduced reliance on any single market or interest-rate environment.

Annual Returns for Key Global Markets

As of 30 June 2026. Source: PIMCO, Haver, BIS. Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results.

*All indices on a U.S. dollar hedged basis, except for Local and External EM proxies.

United States represented by Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index, Eurozone represented by Bloomberg Pan-European Aggregate Index (USD-Hedged), Japan represented by Bloomberg Japanese Aggregate Index (USD-Hedged), Australia represented by Bloomberg Global: Australian Aggregate Index (USD Hedged), Canada represented by Bloomberg Canadian Aggregate Index (USD-Hedged), Local EM represented by JPMorgan GBI-EM Global Diversified Index (Unhedged), External EM represented by JPMorgan EMBI Global Index, United Kingdom represented by Bloomberg Sterling Aggregate Index (USD-Hedged).

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