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Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks

The Federal Reserve forecasts only a modest uptick in U.S. unemployment next year as inflation cools, but history and current labor market trends make us less certain.

ECB Prioritizes Fighting Inflation Above Avoiding Recession

The European Central Bank is likely at or very near its peak policy rate, but we don’t expect rate cuts in the near term.

At Jackson Hole, Fed Reinforces Policy Stance

The Fed chair’s high-profile speech emphasized the central bank’s focus on taming inflation.

U.S. Downgrade a Reminder That Rising Deficits Can Have a Cost

The sovereign credit rating cut is unlikely to significantly change views toward U.S. Treasuries, but questions about debt sustainability may grow louder over time.

ECB: Approaching Cruising Altitude

After the European Central Bank hikes rates, focus shifts from how high to how long.

Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase

Amid an outlook for slower growth and more moderate inflation, the Fed shifts to data dependence.

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Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks

Fed Seems Confident in Soft Landing, But We See Risks

ECB Prioritizes Fighting Inflation Above Avoiding Recession

ECB Prioritizes Fighting Inflation Above Avoiding Recession

At Jackson Hole, Fed Reinforces Policy Stance

At Jackson Hole, Fed Reinforces Policy Stance

U.S. Downgrade a Reminder That Rising Deficits Can Have a Cost

U.S. Downgrade a Reminder That Rising Deficits Can Have a Cost

ECB: Approaching Cruising Altitude

ECB: Approaching Cruising Altitude

Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase

Fed Cycle Enters Data-Dependence Phase

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