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Trump’s fiscal and immigration policies appear likely to boost the near-term inflation trajectory.
We believe recent developments in the labor market may actually indicate declining and more limited slack.
Today’s CPI release was a bit of a mixed bag, but overall it doesn’t change our view that headline year-over-year inflation should accelerate toward 2.0%–2.5% over the coming year.
While inflation may be harder to find given the globalization of goods over the past 20 years, along with recent dollar and commodity shocks, it’s there if you know where to look.
Underlying components of the CPI suggest U.S. inflation is gradually moving toward the Fed’s inflation target.
Ms. Wilding is a senior vice president and U.S. economist based in the Newport Beach office. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2016, she was director of global interest rate research at Tudor Investment, responsible for recommending trade ideas based on global macro trends. Previously, she was a vice president for U.S. interest rate research with Morgan Stanley and a Treasury market policy analyst for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. She has eight years of investment and economics/financial markets experience and holds an MBA from New York University's Stern School of Business. She received an undergraduate degree from Rhodes College.