RISK FACTORS AND MODELS
PIMCO employs highly granular holdings-based models to generate risk factor exposures. In our analysis, we may display aggregated risk factor data for ease of interpretation, but the granularity of the underlying models is maintained. For Alternatives/Illiquids and in selected cases where holdings information is unavailable or unreliable, PIMCO may use returns-based regression models to generate risk factor exposures.
Intermediate Core-Plus Morningstar Model: To create a model for active managers in each Morningstar Category Index PIMCO utilizes a multivariate regression of daily returns on active managers within each Morningstar Category Index versus it’s category benchmark over the last 10-years ending 30 June 2023 (updated annually) to create a risk model out of key risk factors which are statistically significant. Each risk model is a combination of the benchmark index and the active risk modeled measured described above. Yield for each category is provided by Morningstar as of the month-end stated. For the Multisector Bond and Non-traditional Bond Categories, we use the full category index given the limited passive funds in these categories and lack of suitable category benchmark. Please contact your PIMCO representative for more details on how each category index model is estimated.
EQUITY
- Equity risk factors are based on the MSCI Barra Global Equity Model (GEM3). The exposure to each equity country or industry factor is the market value weight of stocks categorized in that country or industry. Style factors (such as size, value, and momentum) are standardized to have a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. Please refer to Barra GEM3 documentation for more details.
- PIMCO disaggregates the Barra world equity factor into additive country exposures. Thus, the risk contribution from a certain country’s equity exposure includes contributions from both the world equity factor and the country equity factor in the original Barra model.
INTEREST RATE DURATION
Measured in years, interest rate duration is the price sensitivity to a change in interest rates (e.g. the price of a bond with a duration of 5 years will fall by approximately 5% if interest rates instantaneously rise by 1%).
PIMCO calculates both real and nominal durations – sensitivities to real and nominal interest rates, respectively – as well as duration exposures to interest rates in different currencies.
The duration risk factor exposure measures a security’s price sensitivity to a parallel shock of the par yield curve. PIMCO’s systems use a scenario-based duration calculation by re-pricing securities under different rate shock scenarios. For securities with embedded options, effective duration is estimated by taking into account the potential impact of yield changes on future cash flows.
SLOPE DURATION
- Interest rate duration reflects sensitivity to a parallel shift of the yield curve. However, parallel shifts rarely occur; the yield curve typically steepens or flattens as interest rates move.
- Measured in years, slope duration is the price sensitivity to steepening or flattening of the yield curve. PIMCO employs a 2-10 slope factor, which reflects sensitivity to the slope of the front end of the par yield curve, and a 10-30 slope factor, which reflects sensitivity to the slope of the long end of the par yield curve.
- The 2-10 slope risk factor exposure measures the sensitivity to a steepening or flattening of the 2-year yield relative to the 10-year yield (e.g. the price of a bond with a 2-10 slope duration of 3 years will increase by approximately 3% if the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields widens by 1% while the 10-year yield remains constant).
- The 10-30 slope risk factor exposure measures the sensitivity to a steepening or flattening of the 30-year yield relative to the 10-year yield (e.g. the price of a bond with a 10-30 slope duration of 6 years will increase by approximately 6% if the difference between 30-year and 10-year yields narrows by 1% while the 10-year yield remains constant)
SPREAD DURATION
- Measured in years, spread duration is the price sensitivity to a change in spread.
- For some spread factors, we calculate spread duration for a security based on the price sensitivity to a change in its own spread.
- For other spread factors, we measure credit spread duration relative to a common reference set of securities, in order to normalize spread duration exposures across
securities with different risk levels. For these factors, credit spread duration is estimated in two steps:
- Calculate the sensitivity of the security’s price to its own spread.
- Translate this sensitivity into spread duration relative to a reference spread using a proprietary model. This process utilizes the security’s OAS and the OAS of the reference set of securities.
CURRENCY
- Currency risk factors capture a portfolio’s percent exposure to any currency other than the base currency.
COMMODITY
- Commodity risk factor exposures are measured in percentage weights.
- PIMCO decomposes commodity exposure to specific commodity sub-baskets such as energy, precious metal, and livestock.
ALTERNATIVES/ILLIQUIDS
- Risk factor exposures in this category are regression-based measures of the sensitivity of a portfolio to changes in risk factors that are relevant to alternative strategies or illiquid assets, such as volatility, liquidity, and trend-following.
IDIOSYNCRATIC
- Idiosyncratic risk is generally asset-specific and accounts for volatility that is not attributable to broad market factors.
- In analyses involving PIMCO strategies, idiosyncratic risk describes non-factor risk and may account for the potential overlap of idiosyncratic risk across PIMCO strategies. In these instances, idiosyncratic risk will account for 1) common sources of non-factor risks between PIMCO strategies and 2) residual idiosyncratic risk (which may account for residual correlation between PIMCO strategies).
Private IG ABF Model: Model risk factor exposures are estimated using holdings data in PIMCO systems which align with the specialty finance sector. Leverage
assumptions are based on existing PIMCO accounts. We then add adjustments for illiquidity premia and idiosyncratic risk based on the historical distribution of alpha
(relative to the PME benchmark for private credit) in the Preqin category.
This material is being provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy interests in a fund or any other PIMCO trading strategy or investment product. Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.
This material contains statements of opinion and belief. Any views expressed herein are those of PIMCO as of the date indicated, are based on information available to PIMCO as of such date, and may not have been updated to reflect real time market developments. Statements of opinion are subject to change, without notice, based on market and other conditions. No representation is made or assurance given that such views are correct. PIMCO has no duty or obligation to update the information contained herein.
The analysis in this paper is based on hypothetical modeling. Hypothetical illustrations have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve results similar to those shown. In fact there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In additional, hypothetical scenarios do not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical illustration can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation if any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of a hypothetical illustration and all of which can adversely affect actual results.
Forecasts, estimates and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be interpreted as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation, nor as the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and unlike an actual performance record, do not reflect actual trading, liquidity constraints, fees, and/or other costs. In addition, references to future results should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a client portfolio may achieve.
Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 5-year horizon. For indexes and asset class models, return estimates are based on the product of risk factor exposures and projected risk factor premia which rely on fair value models and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. Model risk factor exposures are based on analysis of historical index data, third party academic research and/or qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. Return assumptions are for illustrative purposes only, not a prediction or a projection of return and subject to change without notice.
We employ a block bootstrap methodology to calculate volatilities. We start by computing historical factor returns that underlie each asset class proxy from January 1997 through the present date. We then draw a set of 12 monthly returns within the dataset to produce an annual return number. This process is repeated 25,000 times to have a return series with 25,000 annualized returns. The standard deviation of these annual returns is used to model the volatility for each factor. We then use the same return series for each factor to compute covariance between factors. Finally, volatility of each asset class proxy is calculated as the sum of variances and covariance of factors that underlie that particular proxy. For each asset class, index, or strategy proxy, we will look at either a point in time estimate or historical average of factor exposures in order to determine the total volatility. Please contact your PIMCO representative for more details on how specific proxy factor exposures are estimated. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown.
A word about risk: All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and low interest rate environments increase this risk. Reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Investments in asset-based lending and asset-backed instruments are subject to a variety of risks that may adversely affect the performance and value of the investment. These risks include, but are not limited to, credit risk, liquidity risk, interest rate risk, operational risk, structural risk, sponsor risk, monoline wrapper risk, and other legal risks. Asset-backed securities across various asset classes may not achieve business objectives or generate returns, and their performance can be significantly impacted by fluctuations in interest rates. Investments in residential and commercial mortgage loans, as well as commercial real estate debt, are subject to risks that include prepayment, delinquency, foreclosure, risks of loss, servicing risks, and adverse regulatory developments. These risks may be heightened in the case of non-performing loans. Investments in mortgage and asset-backed securities are highly complex instruments that may be sensitive to changes in interest rates and are subject to early repayment risk. Structured products, such as collateralized debt obligations, are also highly complex instruments that typically involve a high degree of risk; the use of these instruments may involve derivative instruments that could result in losses exceeding the principal amount invested. Private credit involves investments in non-publicly traded securities, which may be subject to illiquidity risk. Portfolios that invest in private credit may be leveraged and may engage in speculative investment practices that increase the risk of investment loss. Additionally, investments in private credit may be subject to real estate-related risks, which include new regulatory or legislative developments, the attractiveness and location of properties, the financial condition of tenants, potential liability under environmental and other laws, as well as natural disasters and other factors beyond a manager’s control. Investing in banks and related entities is a highly complex field subject to extensive regulation, and investments in such entities may give rise to control person liability and other risks. Investing in distressed loans and bankrupt companies is speculative, and the repayment of default obligations contains significant uncertainties. High-yield, lower-rated securities involve greater risk than higherrated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) may involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale to qualified investors only. Investors may lose some or all of their investment, and there may be periods during which no cash flow distributions are received. These investments are exposed to risks such as credit, default, liquidity, management, volatility, interest rate, and credit risk. Diversification does not ensure against loss. The use of leverage may cause a portfolio to liquidate positions when it may not be advantageous to do so to satisfy its obligations or to meet segregation requirements. Leverage, including borrowing, may cause a portfolio to be more volatile than if the portfolio had not been leveraged. Management risk is the risk that the investment techniques and risk analyses applied by an investment manager will not produce the desired results, and that certain policies or developments may affect the investment techniques available to the manager in connection with managing the strategy.
Target Date Funds are designed to provide investors with a retirement solution tailored to the time when they expect to retire or plan to start withdrawing money (the “target date”). Target Date Funds will gradually shift their emphasis from more aggressive investments to more conservative ones based on their target dates. Target Date Funds invest in other funds and instruments based on a long-term asset allocation glide paths and performance is subject to underlying investment weightings, which will change over time. An investment in a Target Date Fund does not eliminate the need for an investor to determine whether a Fund is appropriate for his or her financial situation. An investment in a Fund is not guaranteed. Investors may experience losses, including losses near, at, or after the target date, and there is no guarantee that a Fund will provide adequate income at and through retirement.
Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.
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