Lotfi Karoui
Latest Insights
Direct lending defaults are harder to observe than public market defaults, but analysis suggests financial distress has risen markedly since 2022.
BDC equities continue to trade at significant discounts to NAV, reflecting skepticism toward reported marks, a concern reinforced by valuation levels that have yet to fully reset, even as BDC bonds continue to outperform their stocks.
As AI-related issuance reshapes bond markets, differences in U.S. dollar and euro performance offer new insights into the roles of supply and technical factors.
Foreign demand for U.S. assets – especially credit – remains resilient amid broader macro and market uncertainties.
Leverage and complexity are gaining ground in today’s late-cycle markets, signaling caution – not crisis – and underscoring the value of diversification and risk management.
The evolution of credit spreads remains driven primarily by credit fundamentals, investor risk appetite, flows, and broader market technicals rather than relative value between Treasuries and swaps.
From the pages of The Credit Market Lens to the Accrued Interest microphone, Lotfi Karoui joins host Greg Hall to explore why the focus on direct lending may be overshadowing the structural themes important to the future of credit markets.
Higher earnings forecasts across corporate credit have raised the bar for second-quarter reporting, while AI hyperscaler capital spending is poised to continue to drive the narrative.
Higher rates, weaker underwriting, and software concentration are exposing vulnerabilities in direct lending and leveraged loans, while high yield bonds appear better positioned.
A widening confidence gap in non-traded investment vehicles is testing private credit valuations, sharpening the case for manager selection and diversification beyond direct lending.
Why emerging market bonds are delivering the best risk-adjusted returns in fixed income, and what it means for multi-asset portfolios in 2026.
A rigorous framework anchored in asset-based finance helps define the actual scale and scope of the opportunity.