“Many Ways to Win”: Dan Ivascyn on Making the Most of Rate Volatility

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Greg Hall: Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Accrued Interest, a PIMCO podcast dedicated to serving financial advisors, their clients, and the wealth management community. Really excited today to have with me Dan Ivascyn, Group CIO here at PIMCO. Dan, thanks for taking time out of the day to join us.

Dan Ivascyn: Thanks, Greg.

Greg Hall: It's been busy in markets. This wasn't part of our regularly scheduled programming, but just given what's been going on in the rates markets, given some of the volatility of late, thought it would be perfect to bring you on, maybe spend half an hour talking about what's going on. You usually are nice enough to do an outlook piece for us in the beginning of the year.

We usually catch up with you again in June, but when we talked to you in June, you warned us it was going to be a bumpy ride, probably over the course of the rest of the year, and that's played out. And so that's why we've got you back a little ahead of schedule. So, you know, thanks for coming off the desk and spending some time talking to our clients and to our listeners.

Dan Ivascyn: Great. I look forward to it.

Greg Hall: So today is October 15th. It's 3:00 in the afternoon, just to timestamp it for everybody who is listening. And it's been a weird couple of days in rates markets and equity markets. You know, I'm referencing, of course, you know, we had a hot CPI print yesterday morning. We had a hot PPI print this morning, and rates, you know, bonds sold off, as you might expect, against a hot CPI print.

And then towards the end of the day yesterday, they started rallying back. And today we're rallying back considerably more. And maybe I wanted to start there, Dan, because that's obviously sort of an unexpected result given the news that we've had this week. And I want to get your impressions of maybe what you think is driving that unexpected result.

And of course, we'll talk about everything kind of throughout the year that's built up to take rates to where they are, but maybe jump into what's going on in markets literally at this moment while we're speaking.

Dan Ivascyn: Yeah, let me do that. Maybe, if I can, let me go back a couple of weeks, perhaps. And we've had this, you know, choppy market that feels quite technically driven over the course of the last few weeks. And, you know, in fact, I think it was late Friday a couple of weeks ago when my former mentor and colleague, Scott Simon, who's been retired from the firm now for over a decade, you know, sent me a text saying, "This is not the type of price action of people making money."

And I think that's true, certainly if you've been long interest rate exposure. But what he was getting at is that this is the type of really choppy price action, messy price action, suggestive of the fact that, you know, sure, there are fundamental reasons why rates have gone higher, but there's also been some deleveraging, some technical unwinds.

And I think when you look at even the price action in the last few days, you're beginning to see signs that this market was oversold, at least over the short term. So, you know, you're right. You had a fairly negative CPI print. You've had more mixed data over the course of the last couple of days. And you had a pretty powerful reversal in rates this week.

And then there was considerable follow-through today as well. All that's accompanied by what looks like similar momentum-driven selling and perhaps some forced unwinds across the AI ecosystem, both within equities and credit. And I think it's just important to note that war in the Middle East and all of this uncertainty regarding AI, at least over the short term, are going to lead to more localized volatility.

So yes, I think we're getting, you know, a little bit of the positive bounce back here over the last few days in terms of yields relative to riskier assets. Yes.

Greg Hall: We talk about it a lot as positioning, right? There's the fundamentals, the intrinsics of what's going on in the underlying economy. And then there's how much of that is actually in prices. And I think both you and Marc Seidner, when he's been on the pod of late, you know, have referenced the fact that we sort of know the bear case for rates, which doesn't mean they can't go higher.

But there was a lot of appreciation in markets for the crisis in the Middle East, for the deficit situation in the US, for the capex cycle, and, you know, crowding out Treasury demand and things like that. And it seems like what I hear you saying is, you know, with that so well appreciated, it maybe takes incrementally much more negative news to get things to look worse in the bond market.

Dan Ivascyn: Yeah, I think that's right. I think what's very different than much of the last 15 years, you know, never mind five years, is that you have this potential value cushion now. High income provides a significant margin for error for those that have even an intermediate time horizon. And I think that's what's very different today.

Just another tidbit I've thought about, because it has been quite volatile. And, you know, when you're trading across a variety of asset classes, you know, you feel it. It's hard not to react to it. Some investors may not appreciate it. I get this myself. But if you look back at returns over the last three years.

It's had about a 7% return in the last three years. Again, it doesn't feel that way, consistent with this idea that with a 3-to-5-year time horizon, you're going to potentially earn your yield. And if you can generate some active returns above passive alternatives along the way, you could do even better than the yield in the context of slightly to moderately rising rates.

In fact, over that three-year period, the 10-year's been up half a percent. So, a half a percent increase in yields. You're still, you know, looking at trailing returns of potentially 7%. Today, the potential valuation cushion's even greater than that. So we started the call today talking about the zig and zag in the markets over the last couple of weeks.

Yes, it matters tactically. Yes, it matters over the short term. But, you know, with this type of value, absolute, relative to other things, and relative to history, patience helps. And, you know, that yield can help catch up in terms of dealing with some prior negative price performance relatively quickly and set the stage again for a pretty exciting return-generating environment for the next few years.

Never mind a period longer than that.

Greg Hall: Yeah, I mean, well, and yeah, you referenced, you know, I guess the three-year record and was it back in '23, kind of the last time rates were sort of approaching these levels too, right? So that was another moment where I think a lot of us, certainly a lot of the advisors who follow fixed income, were a little bit like, "Oh, you know, are we seeing a runaway rate increase here?"

And of course, that turned into a pretty opportune time to invest.

Dan Ivascyn: Yeah, it's rarely that easy. But I think you make a good point, though, right? We had the Fitch downgrade of the US to below triple-A. It created a lot of angst because it was the first, you know, downgrade. We had a lot of client discussions, not just with our global wealth partners, but with institutional clients as well.

It even involved going back and amending guidelines, because some of the old guidelines were written in such a way where, when you lost that rating, you technically had to go back and amend many of them. At that time, you had that negative sentiment around the US fiscal situation, and inflation numbers kept surprising to the upside. Growth numbers were stronger than the market anticipated.

And you got to a point where the 2-year got up above 5%, longer rates above 5%, not quite where they are today, but a lot of pessimism, the view that the Fed and other central banks had to take policy rates meaningfully higher into the end of 2023. So just when it felt at its worst, you began to see the data turn over: inflation data get better, growth numbers surprise to the downside.

And all of a sudden, you had a Fed talking about rate cuts into 2024. We had one of our biggest rallies we'd seen in many, many years. So, you know, I joke, maybe this is wishful thinking this time. It's not the base case view, but I think it's just a reminder that, you know, you have economic surprises in both directions.

Higher real interest rates are going to impact the economy with a lag, and you have various forms of fragility across certain areas of the US economy and financial markets that aren't going to like these higher real rates. So the good news today with the starting yields is you don't need positive price performance to generate some of the highest yields or returns we've seen in 25 years.

But there are plenty of right-tail scenarios from a fixed income perspective that can lead to the possibility for appreciation from here. And again, despite people, you know, leaning quite negatively towards fixed income, certainly relative to equities, just a few weeks ago, we've seen an example of that sneaky and fairly quick rally that could occur somewhat unexpectedly.

Greg Hall: Right. I want to talk about some of these fundamental trends. But maybe let me take you a year back, before 2023, because one of the questions we get, you know, from advisors still, and I understand this, I'm really sympathetic to it: 2022 was an awful time to be fully allocated to fixed income, maybe fully allocated to a lot of things, but certainly there was a lot of disappointment that fixed income didn't perform

its traditional job of hedging out risk assets that year. And obviously, the absolute performance wasn't great for most players. I know the answer to this question, but I'd love for you to be on the record for our listeners. Like, compare what you see today versus where we were in 2022, and just run through how you think about the risk-reward today versus then.

Dan Ivascyn: Sure. It was obviously very different back then. When you look at just valuations, you had very low starting yields. You know, you were down still in the zone of, you know, 1%-to-2% type starting yields in the Treasury market. Back then, we obviously hit, you know, the local low in Treasuries of about 55 basis points back in 2020.

So you had low rates. You had a period of significantly weak inflation relative to target for much of the preceding, you know, 10-to-15-year period. Then you had a supply-side shock, meaning that COVID occurred. It impacted supply chains. It made it very, very hard to import goods for the economy to function at a time where you had unprecedented levels of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus.

So you had a demand shock, a supply shock, and you had this euphoria associated with coming out of a global pandemic, something none of us had ever experienced in our lifetime, that impacted not only our professional life but our personal life as well. So you had a confluence of events that, again, are highly unlikely to repeat, unprecedented, and very, very low valuations.

So you could look at a chart: starting point of yields relative to the then still-low inflation rate. And then as inflation, of course, went higher, higher than we'd seen in several decades, yields were forced to follow. Today, when you look at where we are, and if you look at a simple passive index like the aggregate index, the Bloomberg Agg, you have a 5.5% yield.

Today we're talking about a headline inflation rate a bit north of 3%, a core inflation rate somewhere in the 2.5% range. And that Bloomberg Agg doesn't capture anywhere close to the attractive, high-quality opportunities for investors with a global opportunity set. So, as an example, we have a yield of about 8% today with, again, that inflation rate, depending on which measurement you choose, somewhere in that 2.5%-to-3.5% range.

Then you go back to that simple bond math in terms of breakevens. You know, when you start with an 8%-ish yield on a portfolio, you know, you can have another 100 basis points of selloff in rates and still end up with positive returns. And then the following year, you begin to generate income at a 9% type yield.

Don't expect rates to get that high. I just use that as an example. You know, back when you had yields in half a percent, 1%, you know, 2% territory, that same type of breakeven math was very unfavorable to the risk-reward proposition in fixed income. And then, last but not least, maybe we'll talk about this. Last but not least is, if you have concern about inflation, and there are concerns about inflation over the shorter to longer term, there are some very positive scenarios in the other direction as well we may talk about, but you can buy a series of inflation-protected securities with very, very low breakevens, or, embedded in the pricing of those

assets, the assumption that inflation will get back to central bank targets relatively soon. So what's great about this environment is that there's a little bit for everyone in the fixed income markets, or from a portfolio construction perspective, where you don't have to be right in all of these areas. There are ways to hedge your bet, to diversify, you know, away from certain sources of uncertainty and still have resiliency at a time where you're able to potentially generate very high yields without having to take a lot of economic sensitivity across the portfolio.

Greg Hall: I mean, I think it's interesting. One of the things that we try to remind ourselves, because we can get very caught up in rate moves on a day-to-day basis. And, you know, we're out talking to clients, and we, of course, live our P&L every day. We want to deliver for clients.

We want to make the money. But you've got to keep things in perspective. I was thinking about it. You know, we've had, circa, from the beginning of this year to today, a 100-plus basis point move in the 10-year, but against a starting point of 4%-ish, you know, compared to what you were describing in 2022, when you were starting at 1%.

So, right, you just see the fraction there, the proportion there is just completely different. And then, you know, when I think about, and we'll talk about this too, but, you know, a lot of advisors really, they actually don't own that much fixed income right now. The fixed income ownership levels are about as low as they've been on a percentage basis, because equities have done so well over the last five, ten years.

And so when you think about their ability to withstand a move, the Agg this year has gone, I think, and you'll correct me, but it's gone from maybe plus 1 to minus 2, right? And we think that's massive and extraordinary. But compared to what the average given stock will do on a given day, right, I don't think it's a magnitude change in terms of the volatility that's actually occurring in underlying advisor portfolios.

Dan Ivascyn: Yeah, I agree with that. Actually, I just got back from Asia. Traveled for a couple of anniversaries, you know, our Singapore office, 30 years; 20 in Hong Kong. So did a trip later in the year to celebrate those key milestones. And when we do these events, we tend to also have large presentations, you know, with, you know, a big audience of clients.

And we go through surveys, and remarkably this year, tremendous optimism in equities. Tremendous optimism in tech equities. Very, very low overall sentiment towards fixed income, which shouldn't be surprising. For 15 straight years, you know, we've had very low returns in fixed income relative to equities and relative to their own history. What's great about fixed income, though, is the more you underperform, the higher yields go and the better your forward return prospects are.

But that felt good to me from the standpoint of, you know, to your point, an asset class underappreciated, underowned. It was a good decision for much of the last 10 to 15 years to be in the riskier segments of the market. And now in Asia, there are some jitters in the private credit areas or related to that space.

Some concerns about some of the volatility they're seeing in some of the lower-rated areas of the credit markets, triple-C high yield as an example. But in general, a tremendous amount of room to allocate to fixed income if there is a little bit of nervousness out there in the market. Again, you don't even need nervousness; that's what's so ironic here.

There are plenty of optimistic scenarios for AI, for equities, that could be quite conducive to very attractive fixed income returns as well. For example, almost all of these heads of major tech firms, innovative AI-oriented firms, you know, we're all aware of these folks, they, with very high degrees of conviction, think that deflation is right around the corner.

So you take a high-yield-generating environment, you combine it with scenarios where you could see perhaps not outright deflation, although many are forecasting that, but certainly pretty powerful disinflationary tendencies or pressure on prices in a downward direction in the next few years. So there is an incredibly positive scenario out there that the markets were focusing on a little bit earlier this year, before war broke out in the Middle East.

That's still there, right? Maybe not the base case, but a very, very positive scenario for high-quality fixed income, if we could get through, you know, some of the shorter-term uncertainty around capex and, of course, the unfortunate situation in the Middle East.

Greg Hall: And it's a funny thing about the AI, you know, not trade, but the AI phenomenon, right? If it works, you know, if the technology works the way that its adherents think it may, then yeah, massive boost to productivity and, to your point, potentially disinflationary, you know, impacts on jobs. There could be ways in which that unfolds that aren't, like, totally pleasant for everybody involved.

But you can see it pushing pricing downward. And then, of course, if it doesn't meet expectations, I think you would probably be comfortable with me saying that there's a pretty significant impact to growth. That then also probably becomes something that could lead to rates coming down, trying to promote, you know, to defend the economy in a negative growth scenario.

Dan Ivascyn: Yeah, absolutely. And, you know, when you look at the price action the last week or so, it's a blip in the context of where markets have gone the last few years. But it's an example of what you just mentioned. It's a sign of the type of downward price volatility that could hit markets quite quickly if you don't finally begin to see more significant earnings benefit from all of this capex.

And there are almost certainly going to be winners and losers. During prior periods where you've had exciting productivity, positive technological innovation, it's usually taken a few rounds to determine who ultimately would make money on a technology that did have a positive impact on the economy more broadly. This feels a bit different than the internet. You know, we were here, you know, investing during that period.

But when you go through economic history and you go back to canals and railroads and other innovations over the last few hundred years, it always tends to feel a little bit different when you're in the midst of this type of buildout. So any type of flight-to-quality type scenario will likely be beneficial as well to having a bit more duration, and especially globally diversified duration.

I think this is the other point. You know, we had a global financial crisis now well over 15 years ago. And the reason that that was such a significant negative event for the economy and financial markets is that you had intertwined the financial markets with the real economy through the banking channel, through the mortgage market, through consumer lending.

And regulators tried very, very hard, and were quite successful for 15 years, in separating the financial market from the real economy through very aggressive post-crisis regulation. So, successful for many years. And here we are again: AI driving economic growth, capex unprecedented as a percentage of GDP, the wealth effect. You see it, you know, starkly in parts of the world like Korea, Taiwan, those that are exporting components to drive some of this infrastructure investment.

So today, we're right back to where we were 15 years ago, where you are not able to untangle what's going on in the equity markets from the real economy, from the credit markets. You're back at a point in time where you just need a brief, modest shift in confidence in some of these areas of the riskier financial markets to bleed into the real economy.

So again, not a prediction. Yet we still remain cautiously optimistic. But the tails are getting fatter, and those risks are becoming more amplified, while the value differential shifts further and further in favor of high-quality, income-producing assets versus all the risky stuff that's done, you know, better over the last 10 to 15 years.

Greg Hall: Earlier in the year, I think, in our Secular Forum piece, which we published in June, and then you and I talked maybe shortly after that, shortly before that. We had some degree of conviction that the credit cycle had begun. And I think that was a theme that was important to you at the time. And we were looking at private credit and direct lending, and we were looking at the bank loan market and some of the excesses there.

Do you think this sorting function of the firms in AI or tech that will last versus the firms that won't make it... Are we seeing the onset of that process with the CoreWeave news of this week or with other situations, or do you just not want to call it at this point?

And I'm not trying to put you on the spot. I just think it's sort of an interesting perspective for listeners to take away.

Dan Ivascyn: Well, I think these are signs of the potential for losses just within the tech space or the AI space over the course of the next few years. This may be a blip. You know, there is this tremendous momentum when you look at GPU pricing. When you look at some of the supply bottlenecks in the market, there very well will continue to be significant pricing power from some of these models, including a neocloud, you know, like a CoreWeave.

But when you look at the amount of debt required to fund this expansion, the winner-take-all mentality that's out there, the hyperscalers' shift in business models in order to go after some of these revenues, at least over the intermediate to longer term, there are going to be winners and losers. And you made the point that all this capex investment is being done for a reason, and that is to steal profits from other old-economy companies.

So if you're an old-economy company with a lot of debt on your balance sheet, already not able to take advantage of AI across your new business, these companies are coming after these old-economy business models. So that was the point we were making during the Secular Forum: that normally you think weak economy, high losses; strong economy, very low losses, which has been the case for much of the last, you know, 10-to-15-year period.

It's going to be different going forward. Strong economic growth, ongoing innovation on the tech side, is going to lead to disruption and more loss realization across old-economy business models. And what's different between where we were during the Secular Forum and today is that we have real rates that are 100 basis points higher. The last thing that some of the weaker credits in the direct lending space, or some of the more fragile areas of the commercial real estate space, wanted to see is 100 basis points higher real rates.

And now there's the prospect for further tightening from central banks and an even more challenged environment to try to refinance debt. That was during a time where lenders were quite optimistic. There was a lot of competition, there were deteriorating standards, you had zero rates, and you didn't have this type of uncertainty around AI disruption. So I don't want to sound overly dramatic here at all.

It's just that increases in rates impact the economy with lags, and the central bank has only tightened policy once here this cycle. The market's done a lot of tightening for them, though. So, you know, you have a situation where things move in slow motion today relative to where we were 20 years ago, when there was less risk being transferred into that private segment of the market.

But there's pain. And on a forward basis, expect more disappointment in some of these areas. And of course, that's the way monetary policy works. And again, you know, we do think it will be a moderating force towards growth over the next several quarters, not a recession, just the type of healthy slowdown in at least the US economy, where there have been some risks of overheating.

Greg Hall: Yeah, yeah. But as we were talking earlier, you know, sometimes, you know, in our market, the bad news was getting worse and people were selling bonds. But as the value on offer increased, the news had to get progressively worse and worse to force people to sell bonds.

And then in the equity markets, obviously, you've got the opposite phenomenon, where the news has to get better and better. The second derivative of that has to get better and better to sustain these valuations. So it speaks to that fragility. I do wonder, Dan, you know, one of the things that I think about a lot, and maybe it's more of a philosophical question.

But, you know, when I think about your investment process, you know, you take a very, very broad look at the world. You've got a lot of different things that you can invest in across multiple different countries. You're fairly benchmark agnostic in the strategies where you're most involved. You can look at credit. You can look at sovereign risk.

You can obviously look outside the US. You can look at structured product and corporate credit and all these things. And the fact that you've been emphasizing duration in these portfolios, I think sometimes there's sort of a temptation to think of that as the default position for a bond manager. And in your case, at least as I understand it, it's a very deliberate decision you're making, because that's where you find value relative to just about anything else you could invest in in the world.

And I thought maybe you could do kind of a quick tour of, you know, we talked about the equity market a fair amount, but credit markets, US versus non-US, other sources of return in the portfolio, and just why your conviction in the relative value of duration right now is so high.

Dan Ivascyn: Yeah. And to be clear, we don't seek out duration in isolation. You know, we look at the market setup, we look at, you know, our overall view of the world, and it's fairly constructive still. But when you look at equity markets, they're near all-time highs from a valuation perspective. When you look at credit spreads, particularly lower-quality credit spreads, they're narrower, near all-time tights, bank loans in particular and high yield, despite some of the challenges in the direct lending space.

When you look at new originations, they've widened a bit, underwriting's improved a bit, but they're still very tight from a historical perspective. When you look at yields, just high-quality yields, the yield component versus the spread component, you're at the highest levels in over 25 years. So sure, they could get cheaper. Stocks could get more expensive, credit spreads could get tighter.

But when you start there and we think about our mandate, you know, with our end clients, and we've always said, you know, at PIMCO, we want to be able to generate income and total return in a creative way, in a different way than how many other managers generate return, which is all too often owning more credit risk, more economically sensitive areas of the market in exchange for the higher yield.

That's a reasonable strategy. We deploy it as part of our mandate. Sometimes we're overweight those assets, but you pay a lot to get access to those areas of the market relative to their inherent risks. On a day-to-day basis, especially if you're talking about bank loans, they don't move around that much. Direct lending didn't move around that much over the course of the last few years.

So it can create this false sense of security, and then it can exhibit downside characteristics pretty, pretty quickly. So we start with that premise. And what we want to do across our portfolios is generate income in an attractive and a resilient area. And as I mentioned earlier, there's a little bit for everyone today. So in the United States, yes, yields are very attractive, the highest levels we've seen in a few decades.

But our fiscal position isn't quite where we would want it to be. We think it's manageable in the US. We think we, as private lenders, get to earn more than we would otherwise if the US were more responsible on the fiscal side. But they're not. And the great news is we can diversify, even hedged back to the US dollar, into countries that have a much better fiscal situation: Australia, the UK to a degree, Canada, parts of Europe, high-quality EM.

Even these provide diversification. In most of those areas I just mentioned, a pickup in yield, and in many of those areas that we just mentioned, a pickup in credit quality. And then what's really, really exciting is that in high-quality bond investment, you want fiscal prudence and economic weakness. [unclear] the US economy, strong 30-year fixed-rate mortgage market.

Most of us have locked in a rate well below the current mortgage rate of 7.5%. And all this tech innovation here leads to more economic momentum than in all those other countries that I mentioned, for the most part, where you have better fiscal conditions and a weaker economy. So, great opportunities to diversify. And then, yes, inflation is higher than central bank targets.

Yes, it's expected to get back down to target over the course of the next few years. But you can buy inflation-protected instruments in the context of a diversified, global, high-quality mandate and even partially insure against those scenarios as well. So when we think about duration and interest rate risk, it's more about the acknowledgment that the yield component is cheap.

It's attractive, historically, in an absolute sense, relative to other assets. And by having a bit more interest rate risk than we would have had many years ago when we were close to zero, we have the ability to potentially generate these, high-quality yields for many years to come. So we're potentially protecting the portfolio against any type of negative shocks that could lead to a big rally in the front end of the curve.

So it's not about a tactical call, you know, our view versus the Fed, as much as it would have been a few years ago. It's really just the acknowledgment that this is an exceptionally unique environment where, by extending your interest rate exposure a bit, we have the ability to generate that return. And if the market environment changes, you get the price appreciation associated with that shift in overall sentiment.

Right. And that's really the foundation that we're operating under today, and why we are, you know, optimistic that, sure, there's going to be a bit more local volatility, but this is a position where, in the base case, it can generate attractive returns. You get long positive optionality, like you saw in the fourth quarter of '23 or like you've seen during other flight-to-quality type periods in the past. Or if the cycle is different and this AI technology does prove to be disinflationary, productivity-enhancing, pushing the cost to provide services as all these AI agents enter the workforce, you could end up benefiting in that right-tail scenario. So the returns don't have to come at the expense of equities. In fact, they can come alongside continued strong equity performance.

Greg Hall: A lot of ways for advisors to win, actually, kind of given the picture of the world you're laying out there.

All right, Dan, thanks again. I want to make sure you get back to the desk. There's lots going on. You've got a lot of interesting things to look at. But I appreciate you taking a moment today to just walk through some of your thinking for folks listening.

For anybody listening, if you've enjoyed today's conversation, I really want to encourage you to come visit us at pimco.com. If you identify yourself as a financial advisor, you'll be taken to Advisor Forum. That's our one-stop shop for you to get what you need from PIMCO. Move on with your day. Advise your clients well. Spend as much time with them as you can, particularly if you're interested in some of Dan's comments around a few of the strategies.

Here at PIMCO, he does quarterly outlook pieces that will be available on the website. We publish research and insights that can give you a little bit more of an in-depth look at some of the concepts that we talked about today. And of course, we've just published in the last week our Cyclical Forum, which is our quarterly outlook on macroeconomic issues, written by Tiffany Wilding, our senior macroeconomist, and Andrew Balls, who leads our global investment efforts.

So that's a great read as well for a quick and very digestible survey of what's going on in markets and economies around the world. And also, as always, I'm remiss, Dan, I've got to ask everybody to like and subscribe. That's what we do here in podcast world. So hit the like button. Subscribe to us. If we know you're out there, it helps us continue to deliver great content for you and to add value.

So again, Dan, thanks so much, and we'll see you next time.

Dan Ivascyn: Thank you Greg.