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The minutes reveal a committee that had expected to hike at the meeting on December 13-14. Developments since could only have strengthened the case.
Today’s Fed statement seems aimed at making as few waves as possible.
The all-in cost to a regime of global monetary policy cooperation could swamp any theoretical modest benefits.
The main takeaway from these 15 single-spaced pages is that the decision was a “close call” for several of the participants who did not in the end advocate for a rate hike in September.
With the obligatory “data dependency” caveat, this is a Fed that expects to hike later this year, which would mean at the December meeting.
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Global Strategic Advisor
Dr. Clarida is a managing director in the New York office and PIMCO's global strategic advisor. In this capacity he leads PIMCO's annual Secular Forum process and works closely with the Investment Committee to assess and analyze global monetary and fiscal policy trends. Since joining the firm in 2006, he has worked extensively with and served as a trusted adviser to the firm's many central bank and sovereign wealth fund clients. Prior to joining PIMCO, he gained extensive experience in Washington as assistant Treasury secretary, in academia as chairman of the economics department at Columbia University, and in the financial markets at Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 18 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University. He received his undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois.